Kerala floods outcome of cow slaughtering: BJP MLA

New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

New Delhi, Feb 1: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman promised to make India a higher education destination, as she unveiled the government’s plan to invest in the education sector in her Budget speech.

“We propose Rs 99,300 crore for education sector in 2020-21 and Rs 3,000 crore for skill development,” said Sitharaman. While there is an increase of 4.6 per cent in the education spending than last year, the budget for skill development remains almost unchanged. Sitharaman also announced holding IND-SAT exam in African and Asian countries, for foreign candidates who wish to study in India.

The Finance Minister had listed three themes of the Union Budget 2020 while presenting the financial statement of the government in Parliament: Aspirational India to boost the standard of living, economic development for all, and building a humane and compassionate society. The spend under education is being done under aspirational India, “which focusses on focussed on skills, education, and agriculture” said Sitharaman.

“A degree-level full-fledged online education programme will be offered by institutes in top 100 in National Institutional Ranking Framework,” said Sitharaman, adding that Centre will announce a new education policy soon. “The government has received over 2 lakh suggestions on it.”

Further giving boost to India’s import of skilled human capital, Sitharaman said, “I propose special bridge course for nurses and medical professional for labour export to countries who open their door for such jobs.”

“Steps will be be taken to attract external commercial borrowing and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the education sector,” the finance minister added.

She further said the government plans to start a programme for urban local bodies to provide opportunities for internship to young engineers.

The Finance Minister also said National Police University and National Forensic University are being proposed.

The government has also proposed to attach medical colleges with district hospitals on PPP model to deal with shortage of doctors, Sitharaman added.