Khashoggi crisis may tip Middle East power balance towards Turkey

Agencies
November 3, 2018

Istanbul, Nov 3: The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi could alter the power dynamic in the Middle East by strengthening Turkey's influence at Saudi Arabia's expense as they compete for leadership of the Islamic world, analysts say.

This certainly appears to be the goal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the main regional supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Saudi Arabia and its allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates consider a terrorist group.

The killing inside the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul by a team sent from Riyadh on October 2 has already severely tarnished Saudi Arabia's global reputation.

But it is the potential involvement of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the oil-rich Gulf nation's de facto leader known by his initials MBS, that could permanently damage Riyadh's influence in the region.

After initially insisting Khashoggi left the consulate unharmed, then saying he died in a brawl, the Saudi regime finally stated he was killed by a "rogue operation" and arrested 18 suspects, some with links to the crown prince.

Analysts say Erdogan could use the ensuing crisis to weaken the 33-year-old prince, even potentially leading to the royal family removing him from power -- though that seems unlikely.

"The killing of Khashoggi has proven to be a golden opportunity for President Erdogan to pressure Saudi Arabia and work towards presenting Turkey as the new leader of the Muslim world," said Lina Khatib, director of Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.

"The Khashoggi crisis is a big geo-political gamble for Turkey and so far it looks like it is playing the game masterfully. But Turkey alone will not be able to push for the removal of MBS. The ball lies in the American court," she added.

For Erdogan, promoting the Muslim Brotherhood — which Saudi Arabia has sought to marginalise in the Arab world and which was ousted from power and brutally repressed in Egypt in 2013 by current President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi — is at the heart of this power struggle.

The Turkish leader could also try to extract concessions from Riyadh for its ally Qatar, facing a Saudi blockade backed by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt since 2017.

"I think that Erdogan sees this as an opportunity to push back against a triple entente in the Middle East that opposes his policies. That triple entente is composed of MBS, MBZ's (Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan) UAE and Sisi's Egypt," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey Research Program at the Washington Institute.

"These three countries, all Arabs, oppose Erdogan's policies of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Now Erdogan sees a golden opportunity because MBS is vulnerable."

But Sinan Ulgen, president of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy, said "it remains to be seen whether Ankara can continue to leverage this conjuncture and turn it into a permanent advantage raising Turkey's regional influence to the detriment of Saudi Arabia".

Nicholas Heras, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said the Khashoggi case was the "latest chapter in Turkey and Saudi Arabia's ongoing contest over which country is better" to lead the Muslim world.

"Erdogan clearly seems to believe that he can use the Khashoggi crisis as a way to cut Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and by extension, Saudi Arabia, down to size," Heras added.

By not directly pointing the blame at the crown prince over Khashoggi, Erdogan is seeking to keep him under pressure, according to Karim Bitar of the Paris-based French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs think-tank.

"Erdogan knows that he still has ammunition that could weaken MBS in the international arena so basically he is rolling the dice these days trying to figure out how to maximise his profit after this huge Saudi blunder," he told news agency.

While the Muslim Brotherhood is important to Turkey, the West -- especially the United States -- is wary of the group and wants to focus any pressure on the crown prince towards ending the Yemen war and lifting the blockade on Qatar, the experts said.

"I expect the blockade on Doha will likely come to an end in the near future and the Saudis find a way to support the UN's efforts in Yemen," said Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Bitar noted that the US administration relies on Prince Mohammed's support for any possible peace plan for the Israel-Palestinian conflict as well as containing Iran, long a Saudi foe.

Washington could also push the crown prince towards "a rapprochement with Israel and to maintain a hawkish line towards Iran", Bitar added.

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News Network
April 28,2020

Dubai, Apr 28: Riyadh municipality has announced 13 requirements to restore commercial activity in malls starting Wednesday (April 29), in accordance with the government’s coronavirus precautionary measures.

The requirements include: the continued closure of all entertainment and playing areas inside malls, and not allowing the entry of children under the age of 15.

The municipality requires all malls to ensure the availability of medical examination and sterilization teams to measure the temperature of all individuals entering the mall at all entrances throughout opening hours, prevent any person with a temperature exceeding 38 degrees Celsius from entering, remove all chairs and benches in the corridors, and provide masks and gloves for visitors at the entrances.

All malls are to have security personnel stationed at all entrances to ensure that visitors are wearing masks.

The municipality also requires all malls to sterilize the entire facility every 24 hours, allocate rooms for medical isolation when there is any suspicion of an individual being infected with COVID-19, ensure the presence of a sufficient number of security personnel, and carry out regular rounds to verify full compliance, and suspend the valet service.

It also called for malls to put up explanatory signs of the guidelines to ensure that everyone understands the precautionary measures.

Malls should rely on the use of escalators and stairs for movement between floors, and in the event they are not available, only two people are allowed to ride the elevator at a time.

Revised curfew

Saudi Arabia had revised on April 21 its coronavirus curfew timings for the holy month of Ramadan, allowing residents in all areas and cities not currently under a 24-horu lockdown to go out between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m.

However, areas under a complete lockdown will only be allowed to go out for essential needs, such as grocery shopping or medical visits, between the hours of 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. Residents in these areas must stay within their neighborhoods

A 24-hour lockdown was previously imposed on the cities of Riyadh, Tabuk, Dammam, Dhahran, and Hofuf and throughout the governorates of Jeddah, Taif, Qatif, and Khobar.

The government had imposed a full lockdown on the holy cities of Makkah and Madinah as well. Other cities and governorates had a curfew implemented from 3 p.m. to 6 a.m. daily.

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News Network
April 20,2020

Apr 20: Eight Indians, including two engineers, have died due to the novel coronavirus in Saudi Arabia, according to a media report on Sunday.

Mohammed Aslam Khan, an electrical engineer in Makkah, and Azmatullah Khan, an engineer at the Makkah Haram power station, have died due to the COVID-19, Saudi Gazette reported.

Aslam Khan, aged 51, who hailed from Meerut in Uttar Pradesh, was admitted to King Faisal Hospital, Makkah on April 3, following worsening of his condition after being infected with fever and throat pain.

He had been on ventilator for more than two weeks and breathed his last on Saturday night, the paper said.

Khan is survived by wife and a daughter and a son. His wife and children are under self-imposed home quarantine.

Azmatullah Khan, from Telangana, died of coronavirus on Friday.

Mujeeb Pukkottoor, a prominent Indian social worker and general secretary of Makkah chapter of Kerala Muslim Cultural Center, told the paper that the body of Khan was buried in Makkah on Sunday.

Khan, aged 65, had been working with Saudi Binladin Group for the last 32 years.

Fakre Alam, an employee at the Haram Project of Saudi Binladin Group in Makkah, died on Sunday due to infection, the paper said.

Barkt Ali Abdullatif Fakir, an electrical technician working in Medina, also died of coronavirus, it said.

According to the Saudi Ministry of Health’s daily report published on April 14, the number of coronavirus infected cases among workers of Saudi Binladin Group in various parts of the Kingdom stood at 117, and these included 70 cases in Makkah.

The first two Indian fatalities were reported from Medina and Riyadh earlier this month with the death of Shebnaz Pala Kandiyil (29) and Safvan Nadamal (41), both from Kerala.

Mohammed Sadiq, from Hyderabad, working in Jeddah and Suleman Sayyid Junaid (Maharashtra) are other Indians who died due to COVID-19 in the Gulf kingdom, the paper said.

Shebnaz from Panoor in Kannoor district died on April 3 and his body was buried in Medina on April 7. He came back to the Kingdom March 3 after his marriage in January.

Safvan, a taxi driver from Chemmad in Malappuram district, died on April 2 and was buried in Riyadh on April 8.

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Agencies
June 9,2020

Dubai, Jun 9: Dubai's Emirates airline has begun laying off employees to reduce cost and save cash as the carrier looks to rightsize its workforce.

"We at Emirates have been doing everything possible to retain the talented people that make up our workforce for as long as we can. However, given the significant impact that the pandemic has had on our business, we simply cannot sustain excess resources and have to rightsize our workforce in line with our reduced operations. After reviewing all scenarios and options, we deeply regret that we have to let some of our people go," the spokesperson said in the statement.

Citing sources, Reuters and Bloomberg earlier reported that a majority of those being made redundant are cabin crew workers as well as a minority of its engineers and pilots, including those flew the Airbus A380.

"This was a very difficult decision and not one that we took lightly. The company is doing everything possible to protect the workforce wherever we can. Where we are forced to take tough decisions we will treat people with fairness and respect. We will work with impacted employees to provide them with all possible support," said the statement.

The spokesperson, however, didn't disclose how many employees are being made redundant in this latest round of rightsizing the workforce.

Emirates on Sunday confirmed that it extended the period of reduced pay for its staff for another three months till September. It had previously reduced basic wages by 25 to 50 per cent for three months from April, with junior employees exempted.

The airline had employed around 60,000 people at the end of its 2019-20 financial year.

Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, said the announced job cuts at Emirates will likely not be the last given the unprecedented damage that Covid-19 has had not just on air travel, but on the entire aviation industry as a whole.

"Emirates' massive international network means that job reductions were always a last resort option as the company staves off cash burn and expenses at a time when revenues are dried up. While Emirates SkyCargo is enjoying a resurgence in activities, the reality is that this income will never offset the lost money from passenger operations," he added.

"Whilst some salary reduction schemes have prevented bigger job cuts for now, the absence of a cure or medicinal suppressant of Covid-19 means that air travel is unlikely to even reach pre-9/11 levels within 3-5 years, let alone pre-Covid-19 levels in that same time period. For that reason, Emirates' reduction in headcount is necessary to stay competitive, agile and be ready for when air travel can resume with a degree of normalcy that we have been accustomed to for decades," said Ahmad.

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