Khashoggi crisis may tip Middle East power balance towards Turkey

Agencies
November 3, 2018

Istanbul, Nov 3: The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi could alter the power dynamic in the Middle East by strengthening Turkey's influence at Saudi Arabia's expense as they compete for leadership of the Islamic world, analysts say.

This certainly appears to be the goal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the main regional supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Saudi Arabia and its allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates consider a terrorist group.

The killing inside the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul by a team sent from Riyadh on October 2 has already severely tarnished Saudi Arabia's global reputation.

But it is the potential involvement of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the oil-rich Gulf nation's de facto leader known by his initials MBS, that could permanently damage Riyadh's influence in the region.

After initially insisting Khashoggi left the consulate unharmed, then saying he died in a brawl, the Saudi regime finally stated he was killed by a "rogue operation" and arrested 18 suspects, some with links to the crown prince.

Analysts say Erdogan could use the ensuing crisis to weaken the 33-year-old prince, even potentially leading to the royal family removing him from power -- though that seems unlikely.

"The killing of Khashoggi has proven to be a golden opportunity for President Erdogan to pressure Saudi Arabia and work towards presenting Turkey as the new leader of the Muslim world," said Lina Khatib, director of Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.

"The Khashoggi crisis is a big geo-political gamble for Turkey and so far it looks like it is playing the game masterfully. But Turkey alone will not be able to push for the removal of MBS. The ball lies in the American court," she added.

For Erdogan, promoting the Muslim Brotherhood — which Saudi Arabia has sought to marginalise in the Arab world and which was ousted from power and brutally repressed in Egypt in 2013 by current President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi — is at the heart of this power struggle.

The Turkish leader could also try to extract concessions from Riyadh for its ally Qatar, facing a Saudi blockade backed by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt since 2017.

"I think that Erdogan sees this as an opportunity to push back against a triple entente in the Middle East that opposes his policies. That triple entente is composed of MBS, MBZ's (Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan) UAE and Sisi's Egypt," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey Research Program at the Washington Institute.

"These three countries, all Arabs, oppose Erdogan's policies of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Now Erdogan sees a golden opportunity because MBS is vulnerable."

But Sinan Ulgen, president of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy, said "it remains to be seen whether Ankara can continue to leverage this conjuncture and turn it into a permanent advantage raising Turkey's regional influence to the detriment of Saudi Arabia".

Nicholas Heras, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said the Khashoggi case was the "latest chapter in Turkey and Saudi Arabia's ongoing contest over which country is better" to lead the Muslim world.

"Erdogan clearly seems to believe that he can use the Khashoggi crisis as a way to cut Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and by extension, Saudi Arabia, down to size," Heras added.

By not directly pointing the blame at the crown prince over Khashoggi, Erdogan is seeking to keep him under pressure, according to Karim Bitar of the Paris-based French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs think-tank.

"Erdogan knows that he still has ammunition that could weaken MBS in the international arena so basically he is rolling the dice these days trying to figure out how to maximise his profit after this huge Saudi blunder," he told news agency.

While the Muslim Brotherhood is important to Turkey, the West -- especially the United States -- is wary of the group and wants to focus any pressure on the crown prince towards ending the Yemen war and lifting the blockade on Qatar, the experts said.

"I expect the blockade on Doha will likely come to an end in the near future and the Saudis find a way to support the UN's efforts in Yemen," said Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Bitar noted that the US administration relies on Prince Mohammed's support for any possible peace plan for the Israel-Palestinian conflict as well as containing Iran, long a Saudi foe.

Washington could also push the crown prince towards "a rapprochement with Israel and to maintain a hawkish line towards Iran", Bitar added.

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Agencies
April 27,2020

Riyad, Apr 27: The Saudi-led Arab Coalition supporting Yemen’s UN-recognized government on Monday urged all parties to end any escalation of hostilities and return to the status that existed before the Southern Transitional Council (STC) declared self-rule.

In a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), the coalition emphasized “the need to cancel any step that violates the Riyadh agreement and work to accelerate its implementation.” 

On Sunday, the United Arab Emirates-backed STC scrapped a peace deal with the internationally recognized government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi.

Accusing the government of corruption and mismanagement, the separatists said they would “self-govern” the key southern port city of Aden and other southern provinces.

Yemen’s Foreign Minister Mohammed Al-Hadhrami described the move as a “resumption of its (STC’s) armed insurgency and rejection and complete withdrawal from the Riyadh agreement.” 

Authorities in Yemen’s southern provinces of Hadramawt, Abyan, Shabwa, Al-Mahra and the remote island of Socotra also rejected the separatist group’s claim to self-rule.

The government said local and security authorities in the five provinces dismissed the move as a “clear and definite coup.” 

Some of the provinces issued their own statements condemning it.

The coalition appealed to all parties to “give priority to the interests of the Yemeni people over any other interests”. 

It also urged the parties involved not to lose their focus on working to achieve the goal of restoring the state, ending the Houthi “coup” and “countering terrorist organizations”.

“The Coalition has and will continue to undertake practical and systematic steps to implement the Riyadh Agreement between the parties to unite Yemeni ranks, restore state institutions and combat the scourge of terrorism,” the statement said. “The responsibility rests with the signatories to the Agreement to undertake national steps toward implementing its provisions, which were signed and agreed upon with a time matrix for implementation.”

The STC has been part of the coalition-backed forces fighting the Iran-backed Houthi militia, which seized control of the Yemeni capital Sanaa and other provinces in 2014.

The Houthi “coup” has led to the formation of the Saudi-led coalition, which had since driven away the Houthis from the south and other provinces. President Hadi’s government has made Aden as its temporary seat.

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Agencies
February 27,2020

Riyadh, Feb 27: Saudi Arabia on Thursday halted travel to the holiest sites in Islam over fears about a new viral epidemic just months ahead of the annual hajj pilgrimage, a move coming as the Mideast has over 220 confirmed cases of the illness.

The extraordinary decision by Saudi Arabia stops foreigners from reaching the holy city of Mecca and the Kaaba, the cube-shaped structure the world's 1.8 billion Muslims pray toward five times a day. It also said travel was suspended to Prophet Muhammad's mosque in Medina.

The decision showed the worry about the outbreak potentially spreading into Saudi Arabia, whose oil-rich monarchy stakes its legitimacy on protecting Islam's holy sites. The epicenter in the Mideast's most-affected country, Iran, appears to be in the holy Shiite city of Qom, where a shrine there sees the faithful reach out to kiss and touch it in reverence.

"Saudi Arabia renews its support for all international measures to limit the spread of this virus, and urges its citizens to exercise caution before traveling to countries experiencing coronavirus outbreaks," the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement announcing the decision.

"We ask God Almighty to spare all humanity from all harm." Disease outbreaks always have been a concern surrounding the hajj, required of all able-bodied Muslims once in their life, especially as pilgrims come from all over the world.

The earliest recorded outbreak came in 632 as pilgrims fought off malaria. A cholera outbreak in 1821, for instance, killed an estimated 20,000 pilgrims. Another cholera outbreak in 1865 killed 15,000 pilgrims and then spread worldwide.

More recently, Saudi Arabia faced a danger from a related coronavirus that caused Middle East respiratory syndrome, or MERS. The kingdom increased its public health measures in 2012 and 2013, though no outbreak occurred.

While millions attend the 10-day hajj, this year set for late July into early August, millions more come during the rest of the year to the holy sites in the kingdom.

"It is unprecedented, at least in recent times, but given the worldwide spread of the virus and the global nature of the umrah, it makes sense from a public health and safety point of view," said Kristian Ulrichsen, a research fellow at the James A Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. "Especially since the Iranian example illustrates how a religious crossroads can so quickly amplify the spread and reach of the virus." The virus that causes the illness named COVID-19 has infected more than 80,000 people globally, mainly in China. The hardest-hit nation in the Mideast is Iran, where Health Ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour said 19 people have died among 139 confirmed cases.

Experts are concerned Iran may be underreporting cases and deaths, given the illness's rapid spread from Iran across the Persian Gulf. For example, Iran still has not confirmed any cases in Mashhad, even though a number of cases reported in Kuwait are linked to the Iranian city.

In Bahrain, which confirmed 33 cases as of Thursday morning, authorities halted all flights to Iraq and Lebanon. It separately extended a 48-hour ban overflights from Dubai and Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates, through which infected travellers reached the island kingdom off the coast of Saudi Arabia.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said there were no immediate plans to quarantine cities but acknowledged it may take "one, two or three weeks” to get control of the virus in Iran.

As Iran's 80 million people find themselves increasingly isolated in the region by the outbreak, the country's sanctions-battered economy saw its currency slump to its lowest level against the US dollar in a year on Wednesday.

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News Network
March 6,2020

Riyadh, Mar 6: Saudi Arabia on Thursday emptied Islam's holiest site for sterilisation over fears of the new coronavirus, an unprecedented shutdown state media said will last while the year-round Umrah pilgrimage is suspended.

The kingdom halted the pilgrimage for its own citizens and residents on Wednesday, on top of restrictions announced last week on foreign pilgrims to stop the disease from spreading.

State television relayed images of an empty white-tiled area surrounding the Kaaba -- a large black cube structure inside Mecca's Grand Mosque -- which is usually packed with tens of thousands of pilgrims.

As a "precautionary measure", the area will remain closed as long as the umrah suspension lasts but prayers will be allowed inside the mosque, state-run Saudi Press Agency cited a mosque official as saying.

Additionally, the Grand Mosque and the Prophet's Mosque in the city of Medina will be closed an hour after the evening "Isha" prayer and will reopen an hour before the dawn "Fajr" prayer to allow cleaning and sterilisation, the official added.

A group of cleaners was seen scrubbing and mopping the tiles around the Kaaba, a structure draped in gold-embroidered gold cloth towards which Muslims around the world pray.

A Saudi official told news agency the decision to close the area was "unprecedented".

On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia suspended the umrah for its own citizens and residents over fears of the coronavirus spreading to Islam's holiest cities.

The move came after authorities last week suspended visas for the umrah and barred citizens from the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council from entering Mecca and Medina.

Saudi Arabia on Thursday declared three new coronavirus cases, bringing the total number of reported infections to five.

The umrah, which refers to the Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca that can be undertaken at any time of year, attracts millions of Muslims from across the globe annually.

The decision to suspend the umrah mirrors a precautionary approach across the Gulf to cancel mass gatherings from concerts to sporting events.

It comes ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan starting in late April, which is a favoured period for pilgrimage.

It is unclear how the coronavirus will affect the hajj, due to start in late July.

Some 2.5 million faithful travelled to Saudi Arabia from across the world in 2019 to take part in the hajj, which is one of the five pillars of Islam as Muslim obligations are known.

The event is a massive logistical challenge for Saudi authorities, with colossal crowds cramming into relatively small holy sites, making attendees vulnerable to contagion.

Already reeling from slumping oil prices, the kingdom risks losing billions of dollars annually from religious tourism as it tightens access to the sites.

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