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Khashoggi crisis may tip Middle East power balance towards Turkey

Agencies
November 3, 2018

Istanbul, Nov 3: The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi could alter the power dynamic in the Middle East by strengthening Turkey's influence at Saudi Arabia's expense as they compete for leadership of the Islamic world, analysts say.

This certainly appears to be the goal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the main regional supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Saudi Arabia and its allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates consider a terrorist group.

The killing inside the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul by a team sent from Riyadh on October 2 has already severely tarnished Saudi Arabia's global reputation.

But it is the potential involvement of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the oil-rich Gulf nation's de facto leader known by his initials MBS, that could permanently damage Riyadh's influence in the region.

After initially insisting Khashoggi left the consulate unharmed, then saying he died in a brawl, the Saudi regime finally stated he was killed by a "rogue operation" and arrested 18 suspects, some with links to the crown prince.

Analysts say Erdogan could use the ensuing crisis to weaken the 33-year-old prince, even potentially leading to the royal family removing him from power -- though that seems unlikely.

"The killing of Khashoggi has proven to be a golden opportunity for President Erdogan to pressure Saudi Arabia and work towards presenting Turkey as the new leader of the Muslim world," said Lina Khatib, director of Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.

"The Khashoggi crisis is a big geo-political gamble for Turkey and so far it looks like it is playing the game masterfully. But Turkey alone will not be able to push for the removal of MBS. The ball lies in the American court," she added.

For Erdogan, promoting the Muslim Brotherhood — which Saudi Arabia has sought to marginalise in the Arab world and which was ousted from power and brutally repressed in Egypt in 2013 by current President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi — is at the heart of this power struggle.

The Turkish leader could also try to extract concessions from Riyadh for its ally Qatar, facing a Saudi blockade backed by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt since 2017.

"I think that Erdogan sees this as an opportunity to push back against a triple entente in the Middle East that opposes his policies. That triple entente is composed of MBS, MBZ's (Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan) UAE and Sisi's Egypt," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey Research Program at the Washington Institute.

"These three countries, all Arabs, oppose Erdogan's policies of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Now Erdogan sees a golden opportunity because MBS is vulnerable."

But Sinan Ulgen, president of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy, said "it remains to be seen whether Ankara can continue to leverage this conjuncture and turn it into a permanent advantage raising Turkey's regional influence to the detriment of Saudi Arabia".

Nicholas Heras, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said the Khashoggi case was the "latest chapter in Turkey and Saudi Arabia's ongoing contest over which country is better" to lead the Muslim world.

"Erdogan clearly seems to believe that he can use the Khashoggi crisis as a way to cut Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and by extension, Saudi Arabia, down to size," Heras added.

By not directly pointing the blame at the crown prince over Khashoggi, Erdogan is seeking to keep him under pressure, according to Karim Bitar of the Paris-based French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs think-tank.

"Erdogan knows that he still has ammunition that could weaken MBS in the international arena so basically he is rolling the dice these days trying to figure out how to maximise his profit after this huge Saudi blunder," he told news agency.

While the Muslim Brotherhood is important to Turkey, the West -- especially the United States -- is wary of the group and wants to focus any pressure on the crown prince towards ending the Yemen war and lifting the blockade on Qatar, the experts said.

"I expect the blockade on Doha will likely come to an end in the near future and the Saudis find a way to support the UN's efforts in Yemen," said Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Bitar noted that the US administration relies on Prince Mohammed's support for any possible peace plan for the Israel-Palestinian conflict as well as containing Iran, long a Saudi foe.

Washington could also push the crown prince towards "a rapprochement with Israel and to maintain a hawkish line towards Iran", Bitar added.

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Agencies
August 2,2020

Dubai, Aug 2: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on Saturday that it has started operations in the first of four reactors at the Barakah nuclear power station - the first nuclear power plant in the Arab world.

Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC), which is building and operating the plant with Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) said in a press release that its subsidiary Nawah Energy Company "has successfully started up Unit 1 of the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant, located in the Al Dhafrah Region of Abu Dhabi".

That signals that Unit 1, which had fuel rods loaded in March, has achieved "criticality" - a sustained fission chain reaction.

"The start-up of Unit 1 marks the first time that the reactor safely produces heat, which is used to create steam, turning a turbine to generate electricity," said ENEC.

Barakah, which was originally scheduled to open in 2017, has been dogged by delays and is billions of dollars over budget. It has also raised myriad concerns among nuclear energy veterans who are concerned about the potential risks Barakah could visit upon the Arabian Peninsula, from an environmental catastrophe to a nuclear arms race.

Paul Dorfman, an honorary senior research fellow at the Energy Institute, University College London and founder and chair of the Nuclear Consulting Group, has criticised the Barakah reactors' "cheap and cheerful" design that he says cuts corners on safety.

Dorfman authored a report (PDF) last year detailing key safety features Barakah's reactors lack, such as a "core catcher" to literally stop the core of a reactor from breaching the containment building in the event of a meltdown. The reactors are also missing so-called Generation III Defence-In-Depth reinforcements to the containment building to shield against a radiological release resulting from a missile or fighter jet attack.

Both of these engineering features are standard on new reactors built in Europe, says Dorfman.

There have been at least 13 aerial attacks on nuclear facilities in the Middle East - more than any other region on earth.

The vulnerability of critical infrastructure in the Arabian Peninsula was further laid bare last year after Saudi Arabia's oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais were attacked by 18 drones and seven cruise missiles - an assault that temporarily knocked out more than half of the kingdom's oil production.

On Saturday, Dorfman reiterated his concern that there is no regional protocol in place to determine liability should an accident or incident at Barakah result in radioactive contamination spreading from the UAE to its neighbours. 

"Given Barakah has started up, because of all the well-rehearsed nuclear safety and security problems, it may be critically important that the Gulf states collectively evolve a Nuclear Accident Liability Convention, so that if anything does go wrong, victim states may have some sort of redress," Dorfman told Al Jazeera. 

The UAE has substantial oil and gas reserves, but it has made huge investments in developing alternative energy sources, including nuclear and solar.

Experts though have questioned why the UAE - which is bathed in sunlight and wind - has pushed ahead with nuclear energy - a far more expensive and riskier option than renewable energy sources.

When the UAE first announced Barakah in 2009, nuclear power was cheaper than solar and wind. But by 2012 - when the Emirates started breaking ground to build the reactors - solar and wind costs had plummeted dramatically.

Between 2009 and 2019, utility-scale average solar photovoltaic costs fell 89 percent and wind fell 43 percent, while nuclear jumped 26 percent, according to an analysis by the financial advisory and asset manager Lazard.

There are also concerns about the potential for Barakah to foment nuclear proliferation in the Middle East - a region rife with geopolitical fault lines and well-documented history of nuclear secrecy.

The UAE has sought to distance itself from the region's bad behaviour by agreeing not to enrich its own uranium or reprocess spent fuel. It has also signed up to the United Nation's nuclear watchdog's Additional Protocol, significantly enhancing inspection capabilities, and secured a 123 Agreement with the United States that allows bilateral civilian nuclear cooperation.

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News Network
April 26,2020

Abu Dhabi, Apr 26: Indian Ambassador to the UAE Pavan Kapoor says he is appalled after the bodies of three Indians flown back to India were returned to Abu Dhabi on Friday.

The three deceased Indian nationals had died of non-coronavirus causes and were flown to Delhi on Thursday but were promptly returned by authorities there.

“We are appalled at what has happened,” Kapoor told Gulf News. “We do not know if the bodies were returned because of coronavirus-related restrictions, but we are obviously not sending the remains of people [who have passed away from COVID-19],” he added.

“[As we understand], it happened because of new protocols at the airport and we are trying to sort it out,” he said.

Sent back a few hours later

“The remains were not offloaded from the plane, and were sent back a few hours later,” Kapoor explained.

The deceased were Kamlesh Bhatt, who passed away on April 17, and Sanjeev Kumar and Jagsir Singh who both died on April 13.

According to reports in Indian media, Kamlesh Bhat was 23 years old, and hailed from Tehri Garhwal district. He allegedly died of cardiac arrest. Along with the remains Kumar and Singh, Bhatt’s body was initially repatriated on an Etihad Airways flight, then sent back, even though his relatives had been on their way to collect them.

Kapoor explained the procedure through which remains are normally returned to family members back home, saying that the worker’s employer typically makes arrangements with cargo companies to repatriate bodies on cargo aircraft.

The employer applies for a No Objection Certificate from the Indian Embassy, which is granted once the Embassy ensures that all local formalities have been completed. The cargo company then applies for airport clearance, and the airline obtains approvals from the receiving airport.

“If airport protocols have changed, it means cargo companies have to be more careful about the clearance they’re getting,” Kapoor advised.

Additional costs
The ambassador added there may eventually be additional costs to repatriate the bodies but that it is first necessary to sort out the concerns.

The global coronavirus outbreak has spawned difficulties in repatriating mortal remains as a result of the travel restrictions imposed by countries. Remains of people dying from COVID-19 are not being sent back, but the caution surrounding the handling of bodies often affects the repatriation of those who succumb to other causes.

As Gulf News reported, Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan reached out to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday for intervention in bringing back the bodies of Keralites who have died in the Gulf from non-COVID-19 causes.

“I would like to draw your attention to the grievances received from Non-resident Keralites Associations (NRKs) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries on the delay caused in bringing home the mortal remains of NRKs who had expired due to reasons other than the COVID-19 infection,” read the letter by the CM.

“It is learnt that a ‘clearance certificate’ from the Indian Embassies is required to process the application of bringing home the mortal remains of the dead. The Embassies are [further] insisting on the production of a no-objection certificate from the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), New Delhi. To enable to bring back the bodies of the NRIs whose deaths occurred due to reasons other than COVID-19 infection, without necessary procedural hassles, I request your kind intervention,” Vijayan has requested.

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Agencies
June 5,2020

Expatriate workers who fail to abide by the coronavirus protocols in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia may face deportation, according to media reports.

“Individuals who fail to abide by preventive measures, including wearing medical or cloth face masks, failing to observe social distancing and refusing to have their temperatures taken, will be fined SR1,000. The fine will be doubled if the violation is repeated. Residents will be deported after paying the fines,” Okaz newspaper said.

Authorities called on people to report offenders by dialling the toll free number 999, except for the holy city of Makka, where the toll free number is 911.

As per the newly-revised Saudi protocols, social gatherings such as mourning or celebration events that take place inside homes, rest houses or farms, are allowed, but attendants should not exceed 50 persons.

The private sector is also required to adhere to precautionary measures: providing their staff with disinfectants and sanitisers, taking the temperatures of both staff and customers at the entrances of shopping malls.

Other measures include sterilising shopping trolleys and baskets after each use, sanitising facilities and surfaces, closing children’s play areas and fitting rooms in shopping malls and ready-wear outlets.

Authorities highlighted the need for all individuals and entities to abide by health safety rules, social-distancing protocol and the new guidelines set for social gatherings.

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