Khashoggi crisis may tip Middle East power balance towards Turkey

Agencies
November 3, 2018

Istanbul, Nov 3: The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi could alter the power dynamic in the Middle East by strengthening Turkey's influence at Saudi Arabia's expense as they compete for leadership of the Islamic world, analysts say.

This certainly appears to be the goal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the main regional supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Saudi Arabia and its allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates consider a terrorist group.

The killing inside the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul by a team sent from Riyadh on October 2 has already severely tarnished Saudi Arabia's global reputation.

But it is the potential involvement of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the oil-rich Gulf nation's de facto leader known by his initials MBS, that could permanently damage Riyadh's influence in the region.

After initially insisting Khashoggi left the consulate unharmed, then saying he died in a brawl, the Saudi regime finally stated he was killed by a "rogue operation" and arrested 18 suspects, some with links to the crown prince.

Analysts say Erdogan could use the ensuing crisis to weaken the 33-year-old prince, even potentially leading to the royal family removing him from power -- though that seems unlikely.

"The killing of Khashoggi has proven to be a golden opportunity for President Erdogan to pressure Saudi Arabia and work towards presenting Turkey as the new leader of the Muslim world," said Lina Khatib, director of Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.

"The Khashoggi crisis is a big geo-political gamble for Turkey and so far it looks like it is playing the game masterfully. But Turkey alone will not be able to push for the removal of MBS. The ball lies in the American court," she added.

For Erdogan, promoting the Muslim Brotherhood — which Saudi Arabia has sought to marginalise in the Arab world and which was ousted from power and brutally repressed in Egypt in 2013 by current President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi — is at the heart of this power struggle.

The Turkish leader could also try to extract concessions from Riyadh for its ally Qatar, facing a Saudi blockade backed by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt since 2017.

"I think that Erdogan sees this as an opportunity to push back against a triple entente in the Middle East that opposes his policies. That triple entente is composed of MBS, MBZ's (Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan) UAE and Sisi's Egypt," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey Research Program at the Washington Institute.

"These three countries, all Arabs, oppose Erdogan's policies of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Now Erdogan sees a golden opportunity because MBS is vulnerable."

But Sinan Ulgen, president of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy, said "it remains to be seen whether Ankara can continue to leverage this conjuncture and turn it into a permanent advantage raising Turkey's regional influence to the detriment of Saudi Arabia".

Nicholas Heras, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said the Khashoggi case was the "latest chapter in Turkey and Saudi Arabia's ongoing contest over which country is better" to lead the Muslim world.

"Erdogan clearly seems to believe that he can use the Khashoggi crisis as a way to cut Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and by extension, Saudi Arabia, down to size," Heras added.

By not directly pointing the blame at the crown prince over Khashoggi, Erdogan is seeking to keep him under pressure, according to Karim Bitar of the Paris-based French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs think-tank.

"Erdogan knows that he still has ammunition that could weaken MBS in the international arena so basically he is rolling the dice these days trying to figure out how to maximise his profit after this huge Saudi blunder," he told news agency.

While the Muslim Brotherhood is important to Turkey, the West -- especially the United States -- is wary of the group and wants to focus any pressure on the crown prince towards ending the Yemen war and lifting the blockade on Qatar, the experts said.

"I expect the blockade on Doha will likely come to an end in the near future and the Saudis find a way to support the UN's efforts in Yemen," said Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Bitar noted that the US administration relies on Prince Mohammed's support for any possible peace plan for the Israel-Palestinian conflict as well as containing Iran, long a Saudi foe.

Washington could also push the crown prince towards "a rapprochement with Israel and to maintain a hawkish line towards Iran", Bitar added.

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News Network
March 11,2020

Riyadh, Mar 11: Energy titan Saudi Aramco said Tuesday it will boost crude oil supplies to 12.3 million barrels per day in April, flooding markets as it escalates a price war with Russia.

Riyadh had already slashed its price for April delivery after Russia refused its proposal that producer alliance OPEC+ orchestrate a co-ordinated cut of 1.5 million barrels per day.

The production cut had been mooted to shore up global oil prices, which have gone into meltdown as the deadly new coronavirus casts a pall over the world economy, but now price cuts and rising output indicate an unravelling of OPEC+ co-operation.

"Saudi Aramco announces that it will provide its customers with 12.3 million barrels per day of crude oil in April," the company said in a statement to the Saudi stock exchange.

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter has been pumping some 9.8 million bpd so its announcement on Tuesday means it will be adding at least 2.5 million bpd from April.

"The Company has agreed with its customers to provide them with such volumes starting 1 April 2020. The Company expects that this will have a positive, long-term financial effect," the statement said.

Saudi Arabia says it has an output capacity of 12 million bpd but it is not known for how long it can sustain such levels.

The kingdom also has millions of barrels of crude stored in strategic reserves to be used when needed and is expected to use it to provide the extra supply to the global market.

"Production above 12 million bpd shows the Saudis have something to prove," director of Britain-based RS Energy Bill Farren-Price said.

"This is a grab for market share. The taps are open and the prices have been cut sharply," Farren-Price told AFP.

In a quick response, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow could boost production in the short term "by 200,00-300,000 bpd, with a potential of 500,000 bpd in the near future".

But he stressed that Moscow was in favour of extending a December agreement that had seen OPEC and Russia agree to cut production by 500,000 barrels per day in 2020, lowering output from October 2018 levels by 1.7 million barrels per day.

The events of recent days have signalled a disintegration of collaboration between OPEC and Russia.

Russia is a non-OPEC member and the world's second-biggest oil producer, but Moscow and other non-members have in recent years co-operated with the oil cartel in an arrangement known as OPEC+.

The Saudi price cuts over the weekend, which were the first salvo in the price war, sent oil prices crashing -- registering the single biggest one-day loss in three decades on Monday.

Saudi Arabia draws around 70 per cent of its revenues from oil, and the revenues are key to ambitious reform programmes launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

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News Network
April 26,2020

Dubai, Apr 26: Saudi Arabia reported 1223 new cases of coronavirus, bringing the total number of infections in the country to 17522, the Ministry of Health announced on Sunday (April 26).

Meanwhile, the ministry reported 142 recoveries today, with total recoveries in the kingdom at 2357. There are 115 cases in intensive care.

The ministry also confirmed 3 deaths, bringing the total number of deaths in the kingdom to 139.

Saudi King Salman Bin Abdul Aziz has ordered the partial lifting of a curfew imposed due to the new coronavirus across the country while keeping a 24-hour lockdown in the holy city of Mecca, the Saudi news agency SPA reported Sunday. The partial lifting of the restriction started Sunday from 9am until 5pm and will continue until May 14, the agency added.

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News Network
April 26,2020

Abu Dhabi, Apr 26: Indian Ambassador to the UAE Pavan Kapoor says he is appalled after the bodies of three Indians flown back to India were returned to Abu Dhabi on Friday.

The three deceased Indian nationals had died of non-coronavirus causes and were flown to Delhi on Thursday but were promptly returned by authorities there.

“We are appalled at what has happened,” Kapoor told Gulf News. “We do not know if the bodies were returned because of coronavirus-related restrictions, but we are obviously not sending the remains of people [who have passed away from COVID-19],” he added.

“[As we understand], it happened because of new protocols at the airport and we are trying to sort it out,” he said.

Sent back a few hours later

“The remains were not offloaded from the plane, and were sent back a few hours later,” Kapoor explained.

The deceased were Kamlesh Bhatt, who passed away on April 17, and Sanjeev Kumar and Jagsir Singh who both died on April 13.

According to reports in Indian media, Kamlesh Bhat was 23 years old, and hailed from Tehri Garhwal district. He allegedly died of cardiac arrest. Along with the remains Kumar and Singh, Bhatt’s body was initially repatriated on an Etihad Airways flight, then sent back, even though his relatives had been on their way to collect them.

Kapoor explained the procedure through which remains are normally returned to family members back home, saying that the worker’s employer typically makes arrangements with cargo companies to repatriate bodies on cargo aircraft.

The employer applies for a No Objection Certificate from the Indian Embassy, which is granted once the Embassy ensures that all local formalities have been completed. The cargo company then applies for airport clearance, and the airline obtains approvals from the receiving airport.

“If airport protocols have changed, it means cargo companies have to be more careful about the clearance they’re getting,” Kapoor advised.

Additional costs
The ambassador added there may eventually be additional costs to repatriate the bodies but that it is first necessary to sort out the concerns.

The global coronavirus outbreak has spawned difficulties in repatriating mortal remains as a result of the travel restrictions imposed by countries. Remains of people dying from COVID-19 are not being sent back, but the caution surrounding the handling of bodies often affects the repatriation of those who succumb to other causes.

As Gulf News reported, Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan reached out to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday for intervention in bringing back the bodies of Keralites who have died in the Gulf from non-COVID-19 causes.

“I would like to draw your attention to the grievances received from Non-resident Keralites Associations (NRKs) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries on the delay caused in bringing home the mortal remains of NRKs who had expired due to reasons other than the COVID-19 infection,” read the letter by the CM.

“It is learnt that a ‘clearance certificate’ from the Indian Embassies is required to process the application of bringing home the mortal remains of the dead. The Embassies are [further] insisting on the production of a no-objection certificate from the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), New Delhi. To enable to bring back the bodies of the NRIs whose deaths occurred due to reasons other than COVID-19 infection, without necessary procedural hassles, I request your kind intervention,” Vijayan has requested.

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