Khashoggi crisis may tip Middle East power balance towards Turkey

May 11: Saudi Arabia will triple its value-added tax rate and suspend a cost of living allowance for state workers, it said on Monday, seeking to shield finances hit by low oil prices and a slump in demand for its lifeline export worsened by the new coronavirus.

Historic oil output cuts agreed by Riyadh and other major producers have given only limited support to prices after they sank on oversupply caused by a war for petroleum market share between the kingdom and its fellow oil titan Russia.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is also being hit hard by measures to fight the new coronavirus, which are likely to curb the pace and scale of economic reforms launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

"The cost of living allowance will be suspended as of June 1, and the value added tax will be increased to 15% from 5% as of July 1," Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said in a statement reported by the state news agency. "These measures are painful but necessary to maintain financial and economic stability over the medium to long term...and to overcome the unprecedented coronavirus crisis with the least damage possible."

The austerity measures come after the kingdom posted a $9 billion budget deficit in the first quarter.

The minister said non-oil revenues were affected by the suspension and decline in economic activity, while spending had risen due to unplanned strains on the healthcare sector and the initiatives taken to support the economy.

"All these challenges have cut state revenues, pressured public finances to a level that is hard to deal with going forward without affecting the overall economy in the medium to long term, which requires more spending cuts and measures to support non-oil revenues stability," he added.

The government has cancelled and put on hold some operating and capital expenditures for some government agencies, and cut allocations for some reform initiatives and projects worth a total 100 billion riyals ($26.6 billion), the statement said.

Central bank foreign reserves fell in March at their fastest rate in at least 20 years and to their lowest since 2011, while oil revenues in the first three months of the year fell 24% from a year earlier to $34 billion, pulling total revenues down 22%.

"The reforms are positive from a fiscal side as greater adjustment is essential. However, the tripling of VAT is unlikely to help that much in 2020 revenue wise with the expected fall in consumption," said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.

She said she kept unchanged her deficit forecast of 16.3% of GDP for this year, which already factors in a greater than previously announced spending cut.

About 1.5 million Saudis are employed in the government sector, according to official figures released in December.

In 2018, Saudi Arabia's King Salman ordered a monthly payment of 1,000 riyals ($267) to every state employee to compensate them for the rising living costs after the government hiked domestic gas prices and introduced value-added tax.

DIFFICULT TIMES

A committee has been formed to study all financial benefits paid to public sector employees and contractors, and will submit recommendations within 30 days, the statement said.

In late 2015, when oil prices fell from record highs, the kingdom slashed lavish bonuses, overtime payments and other benefits once considered routine perks in the public sector.

In a country without elections and with political legitimacy resting partly on distribution of oil revenue, the ability of citizens to adapt to such reforms is crucial for stability.

"Tripling the VAT will test the limits of the balance between revenues and consumption as the economy dives into a deep recession. The move will impact consumption and could also lower the expected revenues," said John Sfakianakis, a Gulf expert at the University of Cambridge.

"These are pro-austerity and pro-revenue moves rather than pro-growth ones," he said.

Hasnain Malik, head of equity strategy at Tellimer, said the VAT rise could bring about $24-$26.5 billion in additional non-oil fiscal revenue. The rise would hit consumer spending further but was a needed step towards fiscal sustainability, he said.

The Tawakkalna application developed by Saudi Arabia's National Information Centre to processes requests for movement permits during the curfew to curb the spread of the virus has become a major helplnine for past few weeks. 

The application developed through the close cooperation between the Ministry of Health and the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority (SDAIA) was launched on May 4.

According to Saudi Telecom Group, it handles 20,000 calls daily through the Tawakkalna platform by dedicating a call centre of 600 employees through its Contact Centre Company (CCC). 

The Tawakkalna app can be used to issue e-permits for a selected group of government and private sector employees who were exempted from the curfew, and individuals who have medical appointments as well as couriers.

Tawakkalna has features for the service of citizens and residents, for ensuring their safety and comfort that would contribute to facilitating the access of authorized persons to travel permits.

The official page about Tawakkalna on Twitter, says: “You must always keep in mind that pinpointing your exact location of residence is the only way for you to benefit from the app’s range of services and permits.”

The app will also provide the latest alerts and medical news issued by the Ministry of Health about the virus as well as about its spread, ways to prevent it and movement permits.

Tawakkalna can be used for self-disclosure for people who show signs of coronavirus infection and for requesting ambulance service and other important services for the community.

Through the app users can apply for a one-hour permit for a walk in the neighborhood on a daily basis, thereby encouraging walking during this period of lockdown.

Dubai, Apr 12: Saudi Arabia reported 429 new cases of coronavirus, bringing the total number of infections in the country to 4462, the Ministry of Health announced on Sunday.

The ministry also confirmed 7 deaths bringing the total number of deaths in the kingdom to 59.

According to the ministry of health the number of recoveries are 41 cases, making total of recoveries 761.

Ministry also said that 40,000 have been quarantined since the beginning of the epidemic, and only 7,000 remain in quarantine, including those who recently returned from abroad.

Extension of curfew

Early on Sunday, King Salman approved the extension of curfew until further notice due to current rates of coronavirus spread, the official news agency SPA announced.

Earlier last week, Saudi Arabia imposed a 24-hour curfew and lockdown on the cities of Riyadh, Tabuk, Dammam, Dhahran and Hofuf and throughout the governorates of Jeddah, Taif, Qatif and Khobar.

Authorities had already sealed off the holy cities of Makkah and Medina along with Riyadh and Jeddah, barring people from entering and exiting as well as prohibiting movement between all provinces.

Total lockdown on Medina neighbourhoods

The Ministry of Interior also announced a total lockdown on five neighbourhoods in Medina on thursday until further notice. The neighborhoods include Al Sherbat; Bani Dhafar; Qurban, Al Jumuah; and parts of Al Iskan district and Bani Khudrah. No one is allowed to enter or exit these areas.

An official source from the ministry highlighted that the Ministry of Labor and Social Development will provide residents of these neighbourhoods with food baskets and will follow up on their needs while the ministry of health will provide them with necessary medications.

Saudi Arabia, which has reported the highest number of infections in the Gulf, is making every possible effort to limit the spread of the disease at home.