Lockdown hits Indian expats in Saudi Arabia hard. Will govt of India pay heed to their woes?

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Kannur, Jan 23: A member of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has been arrested for attempting to create unrest in Kerala by hurling crude bombs at RSS office and police picket. The miscreants had reportedly planned to pass the blame on others.

The bomb attack took place of January 16 in Kerala’s Kannur. The accused Prabesh, an RSS hardliner, was arrested from Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu.

According to the Kerala police Prabesh hurled steel bombs towards the police picket in front of Kathirur Manoj Smrithi Kendram, an RSS office.

"He threw bombs during the wee hours of January 16 morning. Following the arrest he has confessed that his aim was RSS office. Kannur, being politically sensitive region, any attack on political party offices will be regarded as an act by the opponent," Kathirur SI Nijeesh said.

"We had a police picket in the region for a few months now. We are assuming he wanted to create unrest in the area by removing the police from the spot. We could contain the situation because of the CCTV visuals. He was identified immediately after the incident. Following the attack he went to Coimbatore and was hiding there. Our team nabbed him from Coimbatore," he said.

The police have also said that the accused Prabesh had many criminal cases pending against him including those under Explosive Substances Act, 1883. He was nabbed by a team lead by Kathirur SI Nijeesh, CPO Rohith and Vijeesh.

The RSS office in the region is named after Kathirur Manoj a senior karyakarta (worker) who was allegedly killed by the CPI(M) activists in 2014. Kathirur Manoj was the prime accused in the attempt to murder of senior CPI(M) leader P Jayarajan in 1999.

Bengaluru, Apr 15: Police on Wednesday conducted surprise raids at nearly 120 shops in Bengaluru following complaints of black marketing and sale of foodgrains above the MRP rate.

Sandip Patil, Joint Commissioner of Police, Crime, Bengaluru in a tweet said that action has been initiated against these shopkeepers.

Though the government has maintained the supply chain of essential items, few shopkeepers have used the lockdown opportunity to charge higher prices for essential items.