‘Modi’s Kedarnath show after campaign is poll code violation’: TMC complains to EC

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

Warangal, May 26: A 26-year-old man from Bihar was arrested here for murdering nine people by throwing them into a well to cover the murder of a woman, police said on Monday.

Dr Ravinder, Commissioner of Police (CP), Warangal, said that the bodies were recovered on May 21 and May 22 from the well. Investigation has revealed that the accused, Sanjay Kumar Yadav, killed all of them to cover up the murder of Rafiqa, with whom he had a relationship.

He said that Yadav got acquainted with a person named Maqsood and his sister-in-law Rafiqa. "Slowly, he came close to Rafiqa and started living together with her three children. Yadav tried to misbehave with Rafiqa's 15-year-old daughter. Rafiqa did not like this and threatened to lodge a complaint against him," Ravinder said.

"Then, Yadav planned to kill Rafiqa in order to live with her daughter. Yadav promised Rafiqa to marry. They boarded a train to West Bengal from March 7. Yadav mixed sleeping tablets in the food packet and later strangulated her, and threw her body outside the train," he said.

According to police, Yadav later came back to Warangal but Maqsood's wife Nisha started questioning him about the whereabouts of Rafiqa.

"Nisha threatened to lodge a police complaint against him. With a premeditated motive, from May 16 to May 20, he visited Maqsood's family who stayed in a gunny bag factory," he said.

Yadav purchased sleeping pills from Warangal and mixed in the food on the birthday of Maqsood's elder son on May 20, police said.

"Maqsood and his five family members were living there. Yadav mixed sleeping pills in the food and later they consumed it. Maqsood's family friend Shakeel was also there. Then, he went to the first floor of the factory where two labourers were staying. He mixed sleeping pills in their food too. He suspected that they may get up and create a problem. To cover up the murder of Rafiqa, he killed nine people," Ravinder said.

At around 12:30 am, Yadav woke up and saw that everyone is asleep, according to police.

"Then, he used the gunny bags to drag all the nine people into the well. He threw the gunny bag one by one into the well," Ravinder said.

According to the police, six teams were deployed to investigate the case.

"Yadav has been arrested now and will be taken to police custody. We will collect all evidence and ensure that he gets maximum punishment for this offence," Ravinder said.

Lucknow, Feb 14: Uttar Pradesh doctor Kafeel Khan was on Friday booked under the National Security Act (NSA) over his alleged anti-CAA speech at Aligarh Muslim University on December 12, 2019.

The Uttar Pradesh slapped NSA on Kafeel Khan on Friday even as the doctor waited to be released from jail despite being granted bail on Monday in connection with his alleged inflammatory speech.

SP Crime Dr Arvind said that there were sufficient grounds to book the doctor under NSA.

The suspended pediatrician, Kafeel Khan, was arrested for allegedly delivering a controversial speech during Anti-CAA protests on December 12 at the Aligarh Muslim University or AMU. While he was granted bail on Monday, his family members claimed on Thursday that he was yet to be released.

Dr Kafeel Khan's brother Adeel Ahmed Khan had issued a statement saying that despite being granted bail Mathura jail authorities had not honoured the court's order.

Dr Kafeel Khan was arrested by the UP Special Task Force from Mumbai on January 29 for participating anti-CAA protest at AMU. A case was registered against him at the Civil Lines police station here for promoting enmity between different religions.

After his arrest in Mumbai, Dr Khan was brought to Aligarh, from where he was shifted to the district jail in neighbouring Mathura.

According to police, this was done as a precautionary measure in view of the anti-CAA protests on the AMU campus and at the Eidgah grounds in the old city. Police had said that the Dr Khan's presence in the Aligarh jail could have aggravated the law and order situation in the city.

The doctor was earlier arrested for his alleged role in the death of over 60 children in one week at the BRD Medical College in Gorakhpur in August 2017. Short supply of oxygen at the children's ward was blamed at that time for the deaths.

About two years later, a state government probe cleared Khan of all major charges, prompting him to seek an apology from the Yogi Adityanath government.