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May 28: Abdul Kareem was forced out of school and into a life of odd jobs like repairing bicycles before he finally managed to pull his family out of abject poverty transporting goods across Delhi in a mini truck.

The job, and the slim financial security that came with it, was the first stepping stone to a better life.

All that is now gone as India reels under the economic impact of its protracted coronavirus lockdown. Mr Kareem's out of a job and stranded in his village in Uttar Pradesh with his wife and two children. Their minuscule savings from his Rs 9,000 a month job have been exhausted, and the money he saved for books and school uniforms is spent.

"I don't know what the job situation will be in Delhi once we go back," Mr Kareem said. "We can't stay hungry so I will do whatever I find."

At least 49 million people across the world are expected to plunge into "extreme poverty" -- those living on less than $1.90 per day -- as a direct result of the pandemic's economic destruction and India leads that projection, with the World Bank estimating some 12 million of its citizens will be pushed to the very margins this year.

Some 122 million Indians were forced out of jobs last month alone, according to estimates from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, a private sector think tank. Daily wage workers and those employed by small businesses have taken the worst hit. These include hawkers, roadside vendors, workers employed in the construction industry and many who eke out a living by pushing handcarts and rickshaws.

For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who came to power in 2014 promising to lift the poorest citizens out of poverty, the fallout from the lockdown brings with it significant political risk. He won an even larger second term majority last year on the strength of his government's popular social programs that directly targeted the poor, such as the provision of cooking gas cylinders, power and public housing. The breadth and depth of this renewed economic pain will only increase the pressure on his government as it works to steer the country's economy back on track.

"Much of the Indian government's efforts to mitigate poverty over the years could be negated in a matter of just a few months," said Ashwajit Singh, managing director of IPE Global, a development sector consultancy that advises several multinational aid agencies. Noting that he did not expect unemployment rates to improve this year, Singh said: "More people could die from hunger than the virus."

Desperate Times

Mr Singh points to a United Nations University study estimating 104 million Indians could fall below the World Bank-determined poverty line of $3.2 a day for lower-middle-income countries. This will take the proportion of people living in poverty from 60% -- or 812 million currently, to 68% or 920 million -- a situation last seen in the country more than a decade ago, he said.

A World Bank report found the country had been making significant progress and was close to losing its status as the country with the most poor citizens. The impact of PM Modi's lockdown risks reversing those gains.

The World Bank and the CMIE estimates were published in late April and early May respectively. Since then the situation has only become grimmer, with harrowing images of people making desperate attempts to reach their villages, on crowded buses, the flatbeds of trucks and even on foot or on bicycles dominating media coverage.

The Rustandy Center for Social Sector Innovation at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business analyzed the unemployment data from the CMIE, collected through surveys covering about 5,800 homes across 27 states in April.

Researchers found rural areas were the hardest hit, and the economic misery was the result of the lockdown, rather than the spread of infections in the hinterland. More than 80% of households had experienced a drop income and many won't survive much longer without aid, they wrote in a report.

The government has promised cheap credit to farmers, direct transfer of money to the poor and eased access to food security programs -- but these help people who have some documentation, which many of the poorest don't. With millions of impoverished people now in transit across the country, the food security situation is dire -- news reports are emerging of people foraging through piles of rotting fruit or eating leaves.

Shattered Economy

The economy was already growing at its slowest pace in over a decade when the virus struck. The lockdown, which came into effect on March 25, has hammered it, stalling business activity and putting a lid on consumption, pushing the economy to what may be its first full-year contraction in more than four decades.

It's dire enough to warrant the country exiting its lockdown, as it has been doing incrementally since May 4, even as its infections are surging. India is now Asia's virus hotspot with infections crossing 151,000 according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

PM Modi, who has come under criticism for the pain inflicted on the poor, has said his government will spend $265 billion or about 10% of its GDP to help Asia's third-largest economy weather the pandemic's fallout. But experts say only a part of it is direct fiscal stimulus, and probably smaller than the total damage done to the economy during the lockdown period.

"What is especially worrying is the government's response," said Reetika Khera, an economics professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi. "The epidemic will magnify existing -- and already high -- inequalities in India."

Still, the economic measures aren't going to kick in for some time and industry will likely struggle to restart because of the flight of labour from industrial hubs.

And as the harsh summer unfolds more pain lies in store in the villages now dealing with returning migrant workers.

"There are no factories or industries here, there are just hills," said Surendra Hadia Damor, who had walked nearly 100 km from Ahmedabad, Gujarat, before a voluntary organisation drove him to his village in the neighboring state of Rajasthan. "We can survive for a month or two and then try and find a job nearby -- we will see what happens."

Jeddah, May 1: The government of India and its diplomatic missions in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) States have begun elaborate preparations for the massive evacuation of their nationals stranded or needing to return once the lockdown travel restrictions are lifted.

The Indian missions in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar have started registration for the return of their nationals. The move coincides with the directive of New Delhi to the Indian Air Force and Navy to get their big engines ready to bring back citizens stuck in the GCC states.

India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has stated that the Indian missions in the GCC states have been liaising with local authorities for repatriation of Indians. More than eight millions Indians work and live in the Gulf countries.

The Indian Embassy in Saudi Arabia said that it has issued directives to their nationals who seek repatriation to India to fill an application form so as to facilitate their travel when the authorities lift the travel restrictions. Similar advisories have also been issued by the embassies in other Gulf States.

The Riyadh Embassy said in a press statement that the purpose is only to collect data and no decision has been taken yet regarding resumption of flights to India.

The Embassy will make an announcement with regard to repatriation of Indian nationals when the government of India takes a decision in this regard, the statement said, adding that separate forms have to be filled for each individual, including Indian worker or his or her family members.

The Embassy is in the process of working out the modalities of evacuation of stranded Indians in line with the directions of the government of India, the statement pointed out.

The Embassy and the Consulate General in Jeddah are closely monitoring the situation and are taking all the required measures to ensure the welfare of Indian citizens.

The missions have taken all the necessary measures for the supply of food, medicines and other emergency assistance to Indians in need and that is in coordination and cooperation with volunteers of major community organizations across the Kingdom.

These initiatives have been accelerated following the interactions of Ambassador Dr. Ausaf Sayeed with community volunteers and social workers from all parts of the Kingdom. The Embassy has also been in touch with all major companies in the Kingdom that employed Indian workers to carry out regular monitoring of the workers’ health, especially in labor camps, and take all other precautionary and preventive measures to ensure their health and safety.

According to the plan drawn up by the government of India, the first commercial flights from the Gulf could start after May 3, if the nationwide lockdown restrictions are not extended.

INS Jalashwa, an amphibious assault ship, and two Magar class tank-landing ships are being readied for the evacuation purposes, India’s IANS reported.

These ships, which have a total capacity of 2,000 people, have started making arrangements as per the standard protocols laid out to deal with suspected coronavirus cases like social distancing and sanitization.

The Indian Air Force has been evacuating citizens from coronavirus hit countries such as China, Japan, Iran, Italy and Kuwait since January. The force has stated that it has kept C-17 Globemaster and C-130s on standby which can be used whenever they are required.

Apart from them, Air India flights are also being kept on standby to pick up stranded Indians from the GCC countries.

15 Indian fatalities in western region

Speaking to Saudi Gazette, Indian Consul General Mohammed Noor Rahman Sheikh said that as of Thursday a total of 15 Indian coronavirus fatalities were reported in the western region.

These included seven cases in Makkah, six in Madinah and two in Jeddah. Around 140 Indians have tested positive in the region where most of the coronavirus cases in the Kingdom have been reported.

He said that permission was not accorded from the Ministry of Haj and Umrah to use the Indian Haj mission facility in Makkah as the center to assist the community members with regard to the coronavirus related cases.

“Our medical in charge is in Makkah and with the support of some other staffers, he has been actively involved in lending a helping hand to those Indian nationals who are in distress,” he said.

“We are in regular contact with the Ministry of Health officials in ensuring quick medical assistance to those who are tested positive.” He said preparations are under way for repatriation of Indians once permission is ready to take them home. “We are maintaining a database of all those who contacted the consulate with a request for their repatriation,” he added.

Meanwhile, the bodies of two Indians from the southern state of Kerala who succumbed to the pandemic were buried in Makkah. Naletil Muhammad from Ancharakkandi of Kannoor district, a restaurant worker in Makkah, gave samples at King Faisal Hospital a few days ago after developing symptoms of the disease.

When the hospital authorities advised him to remain in medical isolation, he reportedly preferred to remain in isolation at his residence where he succumbed to the pandemic after a few days.

Muhammad’s two sons, who are working in Riyadh, alerted his colleagues when they failed to contact him over phone. They found him dead at his residence on Monday. Eventually, Ministry of Health officials sent all his six colleagues to medical isolation.

Kottuwala Ippu Musliyar from Thennala, Vengara in Malappuram district, was a well-known social worker in Makkah. He died of coronavirus at Hira Hospital on Wednesday after undergoing treatment for a couple of days.

Mujeeb Pukkottoor, a prominent Indian social worker and general secretary of Makkah chapter of Kerala Muslim Cultural Center, was authorized by their spouses to carry out their burial procedures.

Accordingly Muhammad was buried on Wednesday and Ippu Musliyar on Thursday at the designated area for the coronavirus deceased persons at Sharaie Cemetery in Makkah.

New Delhi, Jul 24: India reported the highest single-day spike of 49,310 coronavirus cases on Friday, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

The total COVID-19 positive cases stand at 12,87,945 including 4,40,135 active cases, 8,17,209 cured/discharged/migrated.
With 740 deaths in the last 24 hours, the cumulative toll reached 30,601.

Maharashtra has reported 3,47,502 coronavirus cases, the highest among states and Union Territories in the country. A total of 1,92,964 cases have been reported from Tamil Nadu till now, while Delhi has recorded 1,27,364 coronavirus cases.

According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), 3,52,801 samples were tested for coronavirus on Thursday and overall 1,54,28,170 samples have been tested so far.