Criticism of Modi will not be tolerated: RSS

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

New Delhi, Mar 7: Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad has taunted Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati saying that she has lost her way. He also said that one will have to work for the larger interest of the society to bring about equality. Only the speeches cannot improve the condition of the Dalits, their participation in power must increase.

In an interview with media persons, Chandrashekhar said: "Members of minority community, Dalits and backward classes are being targeted in the country. Their rights are being taken away. Our workers want that they too should get equal share in political power. Keeping this in mind, we are going to form a new political party on March 15. Their (Dalits) issues will have to be raised. Mere speeches will not work for Bahujan society, one has to raise voice in their favour. They should get a share in power."

On the question that how he would find a foothold in view of large political base of the BSP, Chandrashekhar said, "We are not looking for an alternative. Look at the crores of Muslims, Dalits, members of backward community and minorities. We have to protect their interests. We have a large organisation in the state. Our Bharat Bandh was also successful".

On the question that with which party he will forge an alliance in 2022 after forming his party on March 15, Chandrashekhar said: "When we are forming our party then we don't need to go seeking alliance with anyone. Our party will be formed on the basis of some principles. Whoever will find it suitable will come close to us".

On meeting with Yogi government's former minister Om Prakash Rajbhar, he said that Rajbhar is not a controversial person. He is a big backward leader. He raises voice in favour of the backwards in the Assembly. He also supported us when I was in jail. We talked about how to stop the BJP and will take all necessary steps to prevent the BJP from coming back to power.

When asked why he had several run-ins with the police, Chandrashekhar said: "Ask this question to the police. Have I broken any law? Am I not a citizen of this country? There is no freedom of speech in the Yogi government. This is happening at the behest of the government. We are just opposing it".

Talking about the CAA, NRC and the NPR, he said: "We will not stage protest because the government does not want it. Any law which is wrong in our view will be opposed. This is a secular country. The CAA will divide the country. If there is anything against the Indian Constitution, we will raise our voice. Laws will not be allowed to be made on the basis of religion".

New Delhi, Mar 5: A Delhi court Thursday issued fresh death warrants for execution of the four convicts in the Nirbhaya gang rape and murder case for March 20 at 5.30 am.

Additional Sessions Judge Dharmendra Rana fixed March 20 as the new date of execution after it was told by the Delhi government that the convicts have exhausted all their legal remedies.

The lawyer for the four death row convicts also told the court that there was no legal impediment for the court to proceed in fixing the date of execution.