Pakistanis, Kashmiris, Sikhs target Indians celebrating I-Day in London; 4 arrested

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Sydney, Jan 8:  Authorities in Australia will begin five-day campaign to kill thousands of camels in the country as they drink too much water amid the wildfires.  The government will send helicopters to kill up to 10,000 camels in a five-day campaign starting Wednesday, The Hill reported citing The Australian.

Marita Baker, an Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara (APY) (large, sparsely-populated local government area for Aboriginal Australians) executive board member, said that the camels were causing problems in her community of Kanypi.

"We have been stuck in stinking hot and uncomfortable conditions, feeling unwell, because the camels are coming in and knocking down fences, getting in around the houses and trying to get to water through air conditioners,'' she said.

The planned killing of the camels comes at a time the country is ravaged by wildfires since November. The disaster has killed more than a dozen people and caused the displacement or deaths of 480 million animals, according to University of Sydney researchers.

Mumbai, Jan 30: The Shiv Sena on Thursday endorsed Union home minister Amit Shah's view that alleged inflammatory statements made by Sharjeel Imam, an anti- Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) activist, were dangerous.

No politics should be done on the issue, and such "pest" afflicting the country should be finished off, it said.

Imam was arrested on Tuesday in connection with his speeches at Jamia Millia Islamia University in Delhi and in Aligarh during anti-CAA protests.

He has been booked for sedition, among other offences.

In an editorial published in its mouthpiece `Saamana', the Sena, a former ally of the BJP, said, "We agree with union home minister's comments that Sharjeel Imam's alleged words of separation are more dangerous than that of Kanhaiya Kumar."

Kumar, former student leader from Jawaharlal Nehru University, had been arrested over alleged separatist slogans shouted during a protest on varsity campus.

The Sena, which has formed alliance with the Congress and NCP to come to power in Maharashtra, is often seen walking a tightrope to preserve its credentials as a pro-Hindutva party.

"The union home ministry, while initiating action against Imam, should not indulge in politics and try to finish off this pest that is afflicting our country," the editorial said.

"One must find out why such language of breaking up this country into pieces is being used by the educated youth of this country more and more frequently. Who is spewing such venom into the mind of Sharjeel who did his graduation from IIT-B and now pursuing PhD from JNU?" the Sena asked.

"Even people involved in Elgar Parishad at Pune are facing sedition charges and these people have been known as intellectuals and are well-known personalities," said the party.

"A conspiracy to bring about a conflict between Hindus and Muslims and ensure continuance of anarchy and civil war as in Iraq and Afghanistan exists. The boost for such activities is coming from a 'political laboratory'," the editorial said.