People have no expectations from Congress: Modi

Bengaluru, Jun 11: Most COVID-19 deaths in Karnataka occur when infected elderly people, those with Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI) or any other symptoms delay reaching designated hospitals, a top official said.

Munish Moudgil, chief of COVID-19 War Room in the state, said most of those infected with the virus are brought to COVID-19 designated hospitals at a very late stage and recovery then becomes extremely tough.

He said about 65 per cent of those killed suffered from SARI and are aged above 60.

The death rate due to SARI is 43 per cent for those in the 40-60 age group, he said, releasing data on coronavirus deaths, to reporters.

In the same age group, the mortality due to Influenza Like Illness (ILI) was 17.4 per cent, whereas it is 11.1 per cent among people aged above 60 .

He said 25 per cent of symptomatic patients aged above 60 die due to the virus, while it was 10.7 per cent in the 40-60 age group.

The fatalities among those aged 60 is high even if they are asymptomatic, Mr Moudgil, who is secretary in the Department of Personnel and Administrative Reforms, said.

He said the average number of days spent at these hospitals by those who recovered is about 15 days, compared to 3.5 days for those who died of the virus.

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"Hence persons who are elderly and who have comorbidities or who have SARI must reach designated Covid hospitals at the earliest," Mr Moudgil said.

As of date, Karnataka has reported 69 COVID-19 deaths As many as 6,041 people have tested positive for COVID-19, including 2,862 discharges and 3,108 active cases.

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

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“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Bengaluru, Mar 18: Two more people have tested positive for COVID-19 in Karnataka, taking the tally of infected persons in the state to 13, Health Minister B Sriramulu said on Wednesday.

A 56-year-old man, a resident of Bengaluru had returned to India from the US on March 6 while the second person is a 25-yr-old woman with a travel history to Spain.

"2 more COVID-19 cases have been registered in Bengaluru today, taking the total infected cases to 13. 56-year-old male, resident of Bengaluru returned from the USA on 6th March. Another 25-yr-old female has returned from Spain," Sriramulu said in a post on his Twitter account.

A total of 147 positive cases of coronavirus have been reported in India so far, the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said on Wednesday.