Rakesh Asthana appointed CBI special director

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Thiruvananthapuram, May 22: Domestic flyers arriving in Kerala must undergo strict home quarantine as per the lockdown guidelines, in view of increasing COVID-19 cases in the state, Health Minister K K Shailaja said on Friday.

"Even if the domestic flight services resume, those coming in must remain under strict home quarantine as per the guidelines.

There is no change in that. Most people will be coming from the major hotspots of the country," she said.

Announcing the resumption of domestic flight services from May 25, the Civil Aviation Ministry had indicated on Thursday that it was not in favour of quarantining passengers on short-haul flights.

However, the Assam government has made it mandatory for all air passengers coming to that state to stay in quarantine for 14 days.

Apart from the health department and the local self government institutions, Shailaja said the people of Kerala must also ensure that every returnee to the state remained under strict home quarantine in order to curb the spread of the disease.

"We need to strictly keep under observation all those who come fromoutside the state and make sure that they do not come into contact with others including their family members.

They should be effectively remain under room quarantine at their residence," she said.

The state reported 690 cases after 24 more tested positive for coronavirus on Thursday.

As of now over 80,000 people are under observation across the state.

On the death of a 73-year-old woman, who came from Mumbai, on Thursday, the minister said, "Khadijakuttycame from Mumbai along with three others. She alighted at Chavakkad. Her son who picked her up from there took her to the govt hospital as she was tired. She was given good care."

"However, as her condition worsened, had taken a decision to sent her to the medicalcollege. Her swab test was taken and she was tested positive, but she passed away," Shailaja said.

The minister sounded a word of caution that there would be an increase in cases in the coming days as the influx of people coming from abroad and other states would continue.

"We cannot prevent anyone from coming. They are our brothers and were suffering there. We need to save those who come here and also those who are here," the Minister said.

Shailaja said the southern state had successfully managed the first two phases of the viral outbreak in January and March.

"There were three deaths. But we managed to save the rest of the people including a 93-year-old man," she said.

The Minister further said the situation in the state changed after flight services resumed and the border roads were re-opened after May 7.

"Our fatality rate is low and recovery rate is high.

After May 7, when the flight restrictions were lifted and people from other states started coming in, we reported 188 cases.

At least 90 per cent of the positive cases came from outside and the rest are their contacts," she noted.