Those not proud of Trump calling Modi father of the nation don’t consider themselves Indians: Jitendra Singh

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Washington, Mar 1: Beginning April 1, Indians wishing to immigrate to America will now have to pay an additional $50,000 for the EB-5 or the US investor visa, a media report said.

Although, this additional tax would impact all visa categories, it will predominantly create a barrier for people investing in the EB-5 visa programme, the American Bazaar daily said in the report on Friday.

In 2019, the EB-5 investor visa programme, for the first time since the 1990's, increased the minimum investment amount to $900,000.

With this increase in minimum investment, the new 5 per cent additional tax would mean that applicants would have to pay the extra $50,000, when they move money to an escrow account in the US to fulfil their application criterion.

"The changes to the tax on remittances is a reminder to Indians to carefully plan their tax position before making the move to the US," the American Bazaar quoted Mark Davies, Global Chairman, Davies & Associates LLC, as saying.

"People seeking to emigrate who do not wish to pay this tax at source and rather account for it later may wish to move their money ahead of the new rules coming into effect.

"It is possible to pre-emptively move money into an escrow account in the US until such a time as they are ready to proceed with emigration process," he added.

Mumbai, Feb 17: The Shiv Sena on Monday said the ongoing preparation for the much awaited visit of US President Donald Trump is a reflection of the "slave mentality" of Indians.

Trump's India trip is like the visit of a "Badshah" (emperor), an editorial in Sena mouthpiece 'Saamana' said.

Taking a dig at the construction of a wall on a plot having several slum structures in Ahmedabad ahead of Trump's visit there, the Sena said the US president's trip would neither stop the fall of rupee's value in forex market nor offer betterment to those (slum dwellers) behind the wall.

"Before Independence, British King or Queen used to visit one of their slave nations like India. The kind of preparations going on from taxpayers' money for the arrival of Trump is similar to it. This reflects the slave mentality of Indians," it said.

The Sena also took a swipe at Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation's (AMC) move to build wall on a plot to "hide the slums" on the route through which Trump's convoy would pass.

"Former prime minister Indira Gandhi had once given the slogan 'Garibi Hatao', which was ridiculed for a long time. It seems now Modi's plan is 'Garibi chupao' (hide poverty)," the Marathi publication said.

Is there any financial allocation for such a wall being built in Ahmedabad? Is the US going to offer loan to India to build such walls across the country? it wondered.

"We have heard Trump is going to be in Ahmedabad for only three hours but the wall construction is costing almost Rs 100 crore to the state exchequer," it said.

It is basically a political arrangement between Prime Minister Modi and US President Trump, the Sena claimed.

Last year, 'Howdy, Modi!' (a mega event jointly addressed by the Indian prime minister and Trump) was organised in the US, it noted.

A similar programme, "Kem Chho Trump" (Gujarati expression for how are you Trump), has been now organised (in Ahmedabad) ahead of the US elections, chiefly because of a sizable number of Gujarati people living in America, the Shiv Sena claimed.

"But this visit of President Trump is neither going to stop further fall of rupee in the forex market nor offer betterment to those behind the wall (being built in front of slums in Ahmedabad)," it said.

The Sena said Trump is "not someone very wise or a statesman or someone who cares for the whole world", but he has to be treated with respect as he represents the mighty US.

"Sometimes you have to treat someone with respect to get your things done," it quipped.

The AMC on Friday said the construction of the wall, around four feet in height, was approved much before Trump's Gujarat visit was finalised.

Trump is scheduled to visit Modi's home state Gujarat on February 24.

He will visit the famous Sabarmati Ashram in Ahmedabad and take part in a roadshow with Modi. After that, the two leaders will inaugurate a new cricket stadium in Motera and address a gathering there, with an expected audience of over a lakh people.

While it was earlier speculated that the programme would be called 'Kem Chho Trump', the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation on Sunday tweeted a series of posters confirming that the event is now christened as 'Namaste Trump', apparently to give it a pan-India appeal.