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New Delhi, Jun 26: With looming uncertainty and no likelihood of an early economic recovery in sight, the bull run in gold prices is here to stay. Analysts expect domestic futures to touch ₹ 52,000 per 10 grams in the next few months, till Diwali.

Experts also predict that with the current trend, gold may reach historic levels around ₹ 65,000 per 10 grams in two years time.

Futures of the yellow metal have touched new highs in India off late. On Wednesday, the August contract of gold futures on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) touched an all-time high of Rs 48,589 per 10 grams.

It has, however corrected since and is currently trading at ₹ 48,057 on the MCX, higher by ₹ 116 or 0.24 per cent from its previous close.

Market experts are of the view that both domestic and international gold prices are yet not done breaching records and will touch new highs in days to come.

The resurgence in the number of new cases of coronavirus infection across the globe has added to the uncertainty and fears.

Speaking to media persons, Anuj Gupta, DVP for Commodities and Currencies Research at Angel Broking, noted: "In short term we are expecting it to reach ₹ 48,800-49,000 and for long term, we are expecting ₹ 51,000-Rs 52,000 till Diwali."

On the prices in the international market, he said that it may reach around $1,790 per ounce in the near term from the current levels of $1,762 and the long term, it is likely to be around $1,820-1,850 per ounce.

Gupta noted that with International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest downward revision of economic outlook, both global and of India, and the rising number of cases and high demand by gold exchange traded funds (ETF) have led to this record breaking rise in gold prices.

Covid-19 battered India's economy is projected to contract by 4.5 per cent this fiscal, according to the IMF and the global output is projected to decline by 4.9 per cent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the IMF's April forecast.

Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Financial Services, said that gold's safe haven appeal will remain on the higher side as there is little hope of a quick global economic recovery amid rising virus cases across the world.

"Increased geopolitical instability and an under-performing dollar also lift the metal's sentiments," he added.

According to Prathamesh Mallya, AVP Research, Non-Agro Commodities & Currencies at Angel Broking, said that with the global output to contract and the economies in a deeper recession than most anticipate, gold as an asset class is a safe bet for investors across the globe.

"Although, the physical demand has declined drastically due to the restrictions and lockdowns, the activity of global central banks and their net purchases of gold signal that uncertainty will continue for most of 2020," he said.

He was also of the view that in the international market price of the metal may move towards $1,850 per ounce and in the domestic market it is likely to move higher towards Rs 50,000 per 10 grams.

"The investment demand as seen in the net additions of ETF holdings also signals that gold will shine for a much longer time even if the pandemic is under control. Till then, keep buying gold, if not in physical form, but in digital form," Mallya added.

Industry insiders like Aditya Pethe, Director, WHP Jewellers said: "I basically feel that the current trend for the gold is bullish and for the coming next 2 years, it is likely to move upwards. No one can predict the exact price as currently the trend is on rise but it might change after 6 months. In general for the coming 6 months to one year, the gold prices are likely to cross $2,000 which comes to roughly Rs 55,000. For a temporary moment it may reduce, basically fluctuate as well but overall trend of gold is going to be bullish."

On his part, Ishu Datwani, Founder, Anmol Jewellers said: "Yes - it's very likely that the gold price could easily go up to Rs 60,000-Rs 65,000 in the next two years. There is also a possibility of it going up even more."

"A lot of banks have been buying gold and there is also a possibility that the Indian rupee will depreciate against the dollar. This and geopolitical reasons will cause bullishness in gold."

Mangaluru, Jan 24: Deputy Commissioner Sindhu B Rupesh on Friday said that a specialised task force to manage natural disasters would soon be constituted in all talukas of the Dakshina Kannada district, an official statement said here.

She further said in a meeting of the District Disaster Management Authority that during the floods last monsoon there was a shortage of boats to rescue stranded residents from flood-hit areas. Hence, more boats would be procured for the Home Guards and the Fire and Emergency Services.

She also instructed officials to make sure that schools have their own disaster management plans and also advised them to carry emergency materials kit, used during a natural disaster, in their vehicles.

In the wake of Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) UN High Commissioner, Michele Bachelet, has filed an intervention in the Supreme Court petition challenging the constitutionality of the Citizenship Amendment Act, as she is critical of CAA. Responding to her, India’s Foreign Minister S. Jai Shanker strongly rebutted her criticism, saying that the body (UNHCR) has been wrong and is blind to the problem of cross border terrorism. The issue on hand is the possibility of scores of people, mainly Muslims, being declared as stateless. The problem at hand is the massive exercise of going through the responses/documents from over 120 crore of Indian population and screening documents, which as seen in Assam, yield result which are far from truthful or necessary.

The issue of CAA has been extensively debated and despite heavy critique of the same by large number of groups and despite the biggest mass opposition ever to any move in Independent India, the Government is determined on going ahead with an exercise which is reminiscent of the dreaded regimes which are sectarian and heartless to its citizens, which have indulged in extinction of large mass of people on grounds of citizenship, race etc. The Foreign minister’s assertion is that it is a matter internal to India, where India’s sovereignty is all that matters! As far as sovereignty is concerned we should be clear that in current times any sovereign power has to consider the need to uphold the citizenship as per the principle of non-discrimination which is stipulated in Art.26 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political (ICCPR) rights.

Can such policies, which affect large number of people and are likely to affect their citizenship be purely regarded as ‘internal’? With the World turning into a global village, some global norms have been formulated during last few decades. The norms relate to Human rights and migrations have been codified. India is also signatory to many such covenants in including ICCPR, which deals with the norms for dealing with refugees from other countries. One is not talking of Chicago speech of Swami Vivekanand, which said that India’s greatness has been in giving shelter to people from different parts of the World; one is also not talking of the Tattariaya Upanishad’s ‘Atithi Devovhav’ or ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbkam’ from Mahaupanishad today.

What are being talked about are the values and opinions of organizations which want to ensure to preserve of Human rights of all people Worldwide. In this matter India is calling United Nations body as ‘foreign party’; having no locus standi in the case as it pertains to India’s sovereignty. The truth is that since various countries are signatories to UN covenants, UN bodies have been monitoring the moves of different states and intervening at legal level as Amicus (Friend of the Court) to the courts in different countries and different global bodies. Just to mention some of these, UN and High Commissioner for Human Rights has often submitted amicus briefs in different judicial platforms. Some examples are their intervention in US Supreme Court, European Court of Human Rights, International Criminal Court, and the Inter-American Court of Human Rights. These are meant to help the Courts in areas where UN bodies have expertise.

 Expertise on this has been jointly formulated by various nations. These interventions also remind the nations as to what global norms have been evolved and what are the obligations of individual states to the values which have evolved over a period of time. Arvind Narrain draws our attention to the fact that, “commission has intervened in the European Court of Human Rights in cases involving Spain and Italy to underscore the principle of non-refoulement, which bars compulsory expulsion of illegal migrants… Similarly, the UN has intervened in the International Criminal Court in a case against the Central African Republic to explicate on the international jurisprudence on rape as a war crime.”

From time to time organizations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have been monitoring the status of Human rights of different countries. This puts those countries in uncomfortable situation and is not welcome by those establishments. How should this contradiction between ‘internal matter’, ‘sovereignty’ and the norms for Human rights be resolved? This is a tough question at the time when the freedom indices and democratic ethos are sliding downwards all over the world. In India too has slid down on the scale of these norms.

In India we can look at the intervention of UN body from the angle of equality and non discrimination. Democratic spirit should encourage us to have a rethink on the matters which have been decided by the state. In the face of the greatest mass movement of Shaheen bagh, the state does need to look inwards and give a thought to international morality, the spirit of global family to state the least.

The popular perception is that when Christians were being persecuted in Kandhmal the global Christian community’s voice was not strong enough. Currently in the face of Delhi carnage many a Muslim majority countries have spoken. While Mr. Modi claims that his good relations with Muslim countries are a matter of heartburn to the parties like Congress, he needs to relook at his self gloating. Currently Iran, Malaysia, Indonesia and many Muslim majority countries have spoken against what Modi regime is unleashing in India. Bangladesh, our neighbor, has also seen various protests against the plight of Muslims in India. More than the ‘internal matter’ etc. what needs to be thought out is the moral aspect of the whole issue. We pride ourselves in treading the path of morality. What does that say in present context when while large section of local media is servile to the state, section of global media has strongly brought forward what is happening to minorities in India.   

The hope is that Indian Government wakes up to its International obligations, to the worsening of India’s image in the World due to CAA and the horrific violence witnessed in Delhi.