With India's inflation ticking higher, it may be time for RBI to pause

News Network
July 16, 2020

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

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News Network
May 12,2020

New Delhi, May 12: Stranded for over 50 days due to the lockdown and suspension of passenger train services, many people in the national capital will finally be able to reach their destinations in different parts of the country after the railways resumed services on Tuesday.

Three special AC trains will leave the New Delhi railway station for Dibrugarh, Bengaluru and Bilaspur.

The train to Dibrugarh in Assam will leave at 4.45 p.m, while the one leaving for Bilaspur in Chhattisgarh and Bengaluru in Karnataka will leave the New Delhi station at 5.30 p.m and 9.15 p.m respectively.

Entry to the station has been facilitated from the Paharganj side for all confirmed ticket holders. No entry for passengers holding such tickets will be permitted from the Ajmeri Gate side, the railways said.

Railway authorities have put barricades outside the station premises and only those with confirmed tickets are being allowed to enter.

All passengers are undergoing thermal screening before entering the station premises. For this purpose, they have also been asked to reach the station 90 minutes prior to the departure of the train.

A senior Railway Police Force officer said every passenger is being subjected to thermal screening. Hand sanitiser machines have also been placed at the entrance and the passengers are being advised to sanitise their hands before entering the station premises.

Syed Yasir, a private retail sector executive, said due to the resumption of services he will now be able to go to Nagpur to be with his family on Eid. 

Surendra, an engineer with a PSU, was on an assignment in Agra when the lockdown was announced. After the Railways decided to resume passenger train services, he came to Delhi in a private vehicle to board the train to Bengaluru.

"I was on an assignment in Agra where I was stuck. I have come from Agra in a private vehicle and now going to board the train to Bengaluru," Surendra, who identified himself with his first name, said.

Five more trains bound for Delhi will leave from Patna, Bengaluru, Howrah, Mumbai and Ahmedabad, the railways said.

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News Network
May 15,2020

Vishakhapatnam, May 15: LG Chem on Thursday said following the gas leak at its Visakhapatnam polymers plant, the company has started support measures and has begun the transportation of the Styrene Monomer inventory to South Korea to eliminate all risks factors.

The company would continue to work with government agencies to ensure all possible support for bereaved families and victims, LG Polymers, a step-down firm of LG Chem, said in a statement.

"We confirm the status-quo of the plant remains completely controlled by all measures. We have begun the transportation of the Styrene Monomer (SM) inventory within the plant as well as in the styrene tanks at the port by vessels to South Korea to prevent and eliminate all risks factors," the statement said.

The South Korean chemicals giant has sent an eight-member team from Seoul to investigate the Visakhapatnam gas leak incident and rehabilitate the victims of the tragedy that killed at least 11 people and forced the evacuation of thousands.

"The team of production, environment, and safety experts are currently investigating the cause of the incident and already supporting responsible rehabilitation which is their main objective," the statement said.

Furthermore, the team is working closely with related authorities to analyze the cause of the incident, prevent a recurrence, and support damage recovery in a prompt and expedient manner, it added.

On the support measures, the company said a special task force is currently supporting the bereaved victims and families and visiting them at the hospitals and their homes.

Besides, food and medical services have been organized for the returning residents. Various support activities such as supplying medical and household goods and sanitation of homes will be continued, it said.

"We assure everyone we will do our best to resolve the situation and prevent any incident in the future," the company said.

The company further said that "our teams will carry out mid-to-long-term Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects that can contribute to the local community based on suggestions of the residents.

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Agencies
June 2,2020

Lucknow, Jun 2: Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati on Tuesday said protests in the US after the death of George Floyd, an African-American man, is a clear message to the world that a common man's life has value.

She said this is also guaranteed by the India Constitution, but the governments don't follow it, resulting in the current plight of migrants workers.

Floyd, a 46-year-old restaurant worker from Houston, died in Minneapolis on Monday after a white police officer pinned him to the ground. Video footage showed the officer kneeling on Floyd's neck as he gasped for breath, sparking widespread protests across the US.

"Floyd's killing by police and the 'Black lives matter' agitation in the US have given a clear message to the world that a common man's life has value and it should not be taken for granted," Mayawati said in a tweet in Hindi.

"India's constitution guarantees independence, security, self-respect and pride and governments should give special attention to it. If it was followed, crores of migrants labourers would not have to witness such bad days," she added.

She also demanded better coordination between states to check the spread of coronavirus and said Centre should intervene.

"While coronavirus patients are rising, there is lack of coordination between states and with the Centre, and allegation and counter-allegations are going on and sealing of state borders is unjustified and it is weakening the fight against the virus.  The Centre should intervene," she said in a separate tweet.

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