Modi govt’s Budget 2020 falls short as growth worries persist

News Network
February 2, 2020

Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.

"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."

India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.

While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.

Okay Budget

“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.

The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.

On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.

The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.

Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.

Key highlights from the budget:

* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders

* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies

* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more

* Spending on education raised 5%

* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%

Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.

“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.

With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:

The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.

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News Network
January 12,2020

Kolkata, Jan 12: Strongly defending the new citizenship law, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Sunday the dispute that has arisen over it has made the world aware of persecution of religious minorities in Pakistan.

He, however, deplored that a section of the youth is being “misguided” over the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, which is aimed at giving and not taking away anybody's citizenship rights.

“CAA is not about taking away citizenship, it is about giving citizenship. Today, on National Youth Day, I would like to tell this to the youngsters of India, West Bengal, North East that this is not an overnight law for giving citizenship.

“We must all know that any person of any religion from any country of the world who believes in India and its Constitution can apply for Indian citizenship through due process. There's no problem in that,” he told a gathering at Belur Math, the headquarters of Ramkrishna Mission.

Modi said even Mahatma Gandhi had favoured Indian citizenship to those fleeing religious persecution and that his government has only delivered on the wishes of the freedom fighters.

Referring to anti-CAA protests in the North-East, Modi vowed to protect the distinct identity and culture of the people of the region, and asserted the new law will not hurt their interests.

“We've only done what Mahatma Gandhi had said decades ago. Should we send these refugees back to die? Are they our responsibility or not? Should we make them our citizens or not?” he said, evoking a thunderous applause by the gathering.

Modi said some people with political interests are deliberately spreading rumours about the new citizenship law, despite “complete clarity” over the CAA.

“Our initiative to amend the citizenship act has created a dispute. It is the result of our initiative that Pakistan will now have to answer why they have been persecuting minorities for the last 70 years. Human rights have been demolished in Pakistan,” he said.

Seeking to assuage the concerns of the people of the North-East, Modi called the region “our pride”. “Their culture, traditions and demography remains untouched by this amended law,” he said.

He said the citizenship law was only “changed a little” for those who were ill-treated in Pakisan after Partition.

“They were having a bitter time living there. Women were in danger of losing their pride,” he said.

“Young people have understood the whole thing but those who want to indulge in politics over it will not,” he said.

Modi said five years ago, there was disappointment among the youth of the country, but the situation has changed now.

“Not just India, the entire world has a lot of expectations from the youth of the country. The youth are not afraid of challenges....they challenge the challenges,” he said at the Belur Math, the abode of Swami Vivekananda for several years until his death in 1902, aged 39 years.

Modi, an ardent devotee of Vivekananda, spent the night at the Math.

He has a long association with the Ramkrishna Mission order founded by Vivekananda in 1897. Inspired by the teachings of Vivekananda, Modi had arrived at the Mission Ashram in Gujarat's Rajkot and expressed desire to join the order.

Swami Atmasthananda, who later went on to become the 15th president of the Ramakrishna Math and the Ramakrishna Mission, then headed the Rajkot branch and had advised him that sanyas was not for him and that he should work among people.

During those days, Modi used to regularly meet Atmasthananda and sought his spiritual guidance.

Although Modi went back after spending some time there his the relationship with Swami Atmasthananda and the Ramkrishna Mission continued.

Whenever Modi used to visit Kolkata, even during his days as Gujarat chief minister, he would travel to the Math.

In 2013, during his Kolkata visit, he had gone to Belur and sought the blessings from Atmasthananda.

He had in 2015 called on ailing Swami Atmasthananda at Ramakrishna Mission Seva Pratisthan, a hospital run by the Mission in south Kolkata and enquired about his health.

After Atmasthananda's death in 2017, Prime Minister Modi had termed it as a “personal loss”.

On Sunday, the prime minister paid tributes to Swami Vivekananda on his birth anniversary, which is celebrated as the National Youth Day, and spent some time in the spiritual leader's room in quietude.

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News Network
May 7,2020

May 7: India is projected to record the highest number of births in the 9 months since COVID-19 was declared a pandemic in March, with more than 20 million babies expected to be born in the country between March and December, according to top UN body.

The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) warned that pregnant mothers and babies born during the pandemic across the world were threatened by strained health systems and disruptions in services.

An estimated 116 million babies will be born under the shadow of COVID-19 pandemic, UNICEF said on Wednesday, ahead of Mother's Day, observed on May 10.

These babies are projected to be born up to 40 weeks after COVID-19 was recognised as a pandemic on March 11.

The highest numbers of births in the 9 months since the pandemic was declared are expected to occur in India, where 20.1 million babies are projected to be born between March 11 and December 16. Other countries with the expected highest numbers of births during this period are China (13.5 million), Nigeria (6.4 million), Pakistan (5 million) and Indonesia (4 million), it said.

"Most of these countries had high neonatal mortality rates even before the pandemic and may see these levels increase with COVID-19 conditions," UNICEF said.

It is estimated that there will be 24.1 million births in India for the January-December 2020 period.

UNICEF warned that COVID-19 containment measures can disrupt life-saving health services such as childbirth care, putting millions of pregnant mothers and their babies at great risk.

Even wealthier countries are affected by this crisis. In the US, the sixth-highest country in terms of the expected number of births, over 3.3 million babies are projected to be born between March 11 and December 16.

"New mothers and newborns will be greeted by harsh realities," UNICEF said, adding they include global containment measures such as lockdowns and curfews; health centres overwhelmed with response efforts; supply and equipment shortages; and a lack of sufficient skilled birth attendants as health workers, including midwives, are redeployed to treat COVID-19 patients.

"Millions of mothers all over the world embarked on a journey of parenthood in the world as it was. They now must prepare to bring a life into the world as it has become – a world where expecting mothers are afraid to go to health centres for fear of getting infected, or missing out on emergency care due to strained health services and lockdowns," UNICEF Executive Director Henrietta Fore said.

"It is hard to imagine how much the coronavirus pandemic has recast motherhood" Fore said.

UNICEF said its analysis was based on data from World Population Prospects 2019 of the UN Population Division.

An average full-term pregnancy typically lasts a complete 9 months, or 39 to 40 weeks. For the purposes of this estimate, the number of births for a 40-week period in 2020 was calculated.

The 40-week period of March 11 to December 16 is used in this estimate based upon the WHO's March 11 assessment that COVID-19 can be characterised as a pandemic.

UNICEF warned that although evidence suggests that pregnant mothers are not more affected by COVID-19 than others, countries need to ensure they still have access to antenatal, delivery and postnatal services.

Similarly, sick newborns need emergency services as they are at high risk of death. New families require support to start breastfeeding, and to get medicines, vaccines and nutrition to keep their babies healthy, it said.

"This is a particularly poignant Mother's Day, as many families have been forced apart during the coronavirus pandemic, but it is also a time for unity, a time to bring everyone together in solidarity. We can help save lives by making sure that every pregnant mother receives the support she needs to give birth safely in the months to come," Fore said.

Issuing an urgent appeal to governments and health care providers to save lives in the coming months, UNICEF said efforts must be made to help pregnant women receive antenatal checkups, skilled delivery care, postnatal care services, and care related to COVID-19 as needed.

Ensure health workers are provided with the necessary personal protective equipment and get priority testing and vaccination once a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available so that can deliver high quality care to all pregnant women and newborn babies during the pandemic, it said.

While it is not yet known whether the virus is transmitted from a mother to her baby during pregnancy and delivery, UNICEF advised all pregnant women to follow precautions to protect themselves from exposure to the virus.

Closely monitor themselves for symptoms of COVID-19 and seek advice from the nearest designated facility if they have concerns or experience symptoms. Pregnant women should also take the same precautions to avoid COVID -19 infection as other people: practice physical distancing, avoid physical gatherings and use online health services, it said.

UNICEF said even before COVID-19 pandemic, an estimated 2.8 million pregnant women and newborns died every year, or 1 every 11 seconds, mostly of preventable causes.

The agency called for immediate investment in health workers with the right training, who are equipped with the right medicines to ensure every mother and newborn is cared for by a safe pair of hands to prevent and treat complications during pregnancy, delivery and birth.

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News Network
April 30,2020

Bengaluru, Apr 30: Shares of Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd rose almost 9% on Thursday after the Indian drugmaker got an approval to conduct clinical trials with antiviral drug favipiravir, seen as a potential treatment for COVID-19.

Favipiravir, manufactured under the brand name Avigan by a unit of Japan's Fujifilm Holdings Corp and approved for use as an anti-flu drug in the Asian island country in 2014, has been effective, with no obvious side-effects, in helping coronavirus patients recover, a Chinese official told reporters at a news conference last month.

"After having successfully developed the API and the formulations ... Glenmark is all geared to immediately begin clinical trials on favipiravir on COVID-19 patients in India," Sushrut Kulkarni, executive vice-president for Global R&D, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, said in a statement. 

The Drug Controller General of India, the country's drug regulator, did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment.

On Wednesday, another Indian pharmaceutical company, Strides Pharma Science Ltd, said it had developed and commercialized favipiravir antiviral tablets, and had applied to Indian drug authorities to start trials.

Shares of Mumbai-based Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, which rose as much as 8.9% to 359 rupees ($4.78), was trading up 5.9%, as of 0407 GMT.

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