Rupee marks lowest level as investors flee

May 22, 2012

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Mumbai, May 22: India's rupee fell past 55 per dollar to a record low as concern Europe's debt crisis will worsen prompted investors to pull money out of emerging-market assets.

"It has been touching lows quite regularly, said Subir Gokarn, a deputy governor at the Reserve Bank of India. "There is clearly a strong pressure on the rupee to depreciate. This is coming from a number of factors. One is clearly the current account deficit, demand from oil has been strong and the capital flows are not matching that," he said.

"We have done a number of things and will continue to do things that we think will have the impact of stabilizing the currency. But ultimately capital flows are going to be the main determinant of how the currency behaves.''

Sweeping declines

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of shares lost 10 per cent this month as global funds pulled $6.2 billion (Dh22.76 billion) from the stock markets of India, Indonesia, South Korea and Taiwan, according to the latest exchange data.

German and French leaders meet this week to discuss a revised plan for the euro amid concern Greece is close to an exit from the monetary union. The rupee is also weakening because India's fiscal policy is "too loose" and that is widening the current-account deficit and spurring inflation, according to BNP Paribas.

"An improvement in the situation in Europe and firmer global risk appetite is a necessary, although not sufficient, condition for the rupee to stabilise," Richard Iley, the Hong- Kong based chief economist for Asia at the French bank, wrote in a research note released yesterday. "Fiscal laxity is the root of the problem."

The rupee dropped 1.1 per cent to 55.0350 per dollar in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched an all-time low of 55.0550 and has slumped 7.6 per cent this quarter in Asia's worst currency performance.

India's budget deficit widened to 5.9 per cent of gross domestic product in the fiscal year ended March 31, compared with a target of 4.6 per cent. finance minister Pranab Mukherjee aims to narrow the shortfall to 5.1 per cent this fiscal year.

Rising volatility

The rupee's one-month implied volatility, a measure of exchange-rate swings used to price options, was unchanged at 13 per cent. It touched this year's high of 13.27 per cent on May 18.

The central bank cut the amount of overseas income companies can hold in foreign currency this month to 50 per cent from 100 per cent, in a bid to boost dollar inflows and stem the rupee's slide.

On May 4, policy makers raised interest rates on non-rupee deposits by as much as 300 basis points and freed up borrowing costs on foreign-exchange loans to exporters.

Gold: Debt crisis dims allure

Gold declined in New York as concerns that Europe's debt crisis is worsening boosted the dollar and curbed the appeal of precious metals as alternative investments.

The euro fell as much as 0.4 per cent against the dollar as German and French officials meet today to discuss ways to contain Europe's financial turmoil. Before today, gold declined 4.3 per cent this month, while the dollar climbed 3.2 per cent against a basket of six currencies.

"The flight is towards the dollar," Bart Melek, the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. "The softness in the euro is keeping gold under pressure."

Gold futures for June delivery fell 0.3 per cent to $1,587.70 an ounce at 10:01 am on the Comex in New York.

Demand for bullion in India, the world's largest consumer, dropped to the weakest since late March on May 18, UBS said in an emailed report on Monday.

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Agencies
June 15,2020

New Delhi, Jun 15: After Two Indian officials working with Indian High Commission in Pakistan wet missing on Monday,  the Ministry of External Affairs summoned Pakistan's Charge d'affaires to India in the national capital and told them not to interrogate or harass Indian officials.

"Two Indian High Commission officials are missing since morning while on official work. The matter has been taken up with the Pakistani authorities," Akhilesh Singh, First Secretary and spokesperson, Indian High Commission, Pakistan, said.

According to sources quoted by PTI news agency, the MEA told the  Pakistan's Charge d'affaires to India that the responsibility of safety and security of Indian personnel in Islamabad "lays squarely with Pakistani authorities."

"Pakistan was asked to ensure return of two Indian officials along with official car to Indian High Commission in Islamabad immediately," sources added. 

The incident comes after two Pakistani officials at the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi were accused of espionage and deported.

The two officials have been missing since Monday morning. Officials said the issue has been taken up with the Pakistan government.

Earlier, a vehicle of India's Charge d'affaires Gaurav Ahluwalia was chased by Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) member.

In March, the Indian High Commission in Pakistan sent a strong protest note to the foreign ministry in Islamabad protesting against the continuing harassment of its officers and staff by Pakistani agencies.

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News Network
July 16,2020

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

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News Network
April 11,2020

New Delhi, Apr 11: As India battles the Covid-19 crisis, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday held a video conference with chief ministers primarily to take their feedback on whether the 21-nation-wide lockdown be extended beyond April 14 to stem the tide of the infections.

The Central government is understood to have also obtained views on the issue from all the relevant agencies and stakeholders involved in the efforts to contain the spread of the pandemic.

The video conference, which began at 11am, comes amidst indications that the central government may extend the nationwide lockdown with some possible relaxations even as Punjab and Odisha have already announced extending the lockdown beyond April 14 when the current spell of 21-day shutdown across the country ends on Tuesday.

The Union Home Ministry has sought views of state governments on various aspects, including whether more categories of people and services need to be exempted. In the current lockdown only essential services are exempted.

This is for the second time the prime minister is interacting with the chief ministers via video link after the lockdown was imposed.

During his April 2 interaction with chief ministers, Modi had pitched for a "staggered" exit from the ongoing lockdown.

A PTI tally of numbers reported by various states as on Thursday at 9.30pm showed a total of 7,510 having been affected by the virus nationwide so far with at least 251 deaths. More than 700 have been cured and discharged. However, the last update from the Union Health Ministry put the number of confirmed infections at 7,447 and the death toll at 239.

Addressing floor leaders of various parties who have representation in Parliament, Modi had on Wednesday made it clear that the lockdown cannot be lifted in one go, asserting that the priority of his government is to "save each and every life".

According to an official statement after the Wednesday interaction, the prime minister told these leaders that states, district administrations and experts have suggested extension of the lockdown to contain the spread of the virus.

Before the lockdown was announced on March 24, the prime minister had interacted with the chief ministers on March 20 to discuss ways and means to check the spread of the novel coronavirus.

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