Oh My Gau Mata! Modi govt withdraws ban on sale of cattle for slaughter

New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

Bengaluru, May 7: Fear and anxiety gripped migrant workers who lined up at police stations in the city on Wednesday to register for train services without knowing that the state government had cancelled the train facility.

Senior officials in South Western Railway said they were ready to run special trains for migrant workers. On Tuesday evening, the state government decided to withdraw the requests made for 13 such trains to north India after realtors said they need the labourers here.

Migrants continued to stream into the railway station at Majestic, Bangalore International Exhibition Centre and even the bus station hoping for some travel arrangement. Many who were aware of the government web portal, stood in front of the BBMP ward office or police stations for enrolment.

In Varthur, over 100 migrants stood in front of the police station and sought to know what happened to the forms they had submitted four days ago. "We first went to the BBMP office and were shooed away by an official who directed us to go to the police station. We want to go home and demanded that the police help us. There was no response first. Then they came out and beat us," said Pintu Kumar from Mohanpur of Bhagalpur district in Bihar.

Though a video clip accidentally shot by Kumar showed two police personnel charging the cane at them, a police officer from the Varthur station, however, disputed the claim. "The video doesn’t show the cane landing on any person. We were beating the seat and tyre of two-wheelers to send the migrants away," he said.

At Mahadevapura, the workers came in groups and submitted the forms at the police station.

At the railway station in Majestic, a group of labourers from Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand had walked from several areas in south Bengaluru only to be told that there is no train. Mahendra, a labourer from Jharkhand, said they received 5 kg rice and nothing else in the last 45 days. "Now, I don’t want food. I don’t want the job or money. I can't get stuck here. I want to go home,” he said.

'Restore dignity'

Activists and leaders wrote an open letter to Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa questioning the decision to cancel trains without consulting labourers and protesting the violation of their fundamental rights.

The letter had support of 522 organisations and individuals, including Dalit rights organisations and trade unions. It urged the government to restore the dignity of the migrant workers. "We demand recognition of the autonomy and dignity of the migrant workers to decide their travel plans. No one should be forced either to stay back or to return to their home states," it said.