Soren too hooted by crowds in Modi's presence

New Delhi, May 23: The nationwide lockdown will no longer help India in its fight against COVID-19, and in its place community-driven containment, isolation and quarantine strategies have to be brought into play, leading virologist Shahid Jameel said.

The recipient of Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Prize for Science and Technology also stressed that testing should be carried out vigorously to identify coronavirus hotspots and isolate those areas.

"Our current testing rate at 1,744 tests per million population is one of the lowest in the world. We should deploy both antibody tests and confirmatory PCR tests. This will tell us about pockets of ongoing infection and past (recovered) infection. This will provide data to open up gradually and let economic activity resume," Jameel told PTI in an interview.

He stressed that testing has to be dynamic to continuously monitor red, orange and green zones and change these based on that data.

About community transmission of COVID-19 in India, Jameel said the country reached that stage long ago.

"We reached community transmission a long time ago. It's just that the health authorities are not admitting it. Even ICMR's own study of SARI (severe acute respiratory illness) showed that about 40 per cent of those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 did not have any history of overseas travel or contact to a known case. If this is not community transmission, then what is?" he posed.

Lockdown bought India time in its fight against coronavirus, but continuing it is unlikely to yield any further dividend, Jameel said.

"Instead, community-driven local lockdowns, isolations and quarantines have to come into play. Building trust is most important so that people follow rules. A public health problem cannot be dealt with as a law-and-order problem."

The nationwide lockdown, initially imposed from March 25 to April 14, has been extended thrice and will continue at least till May 31. The virus has claimed 3,720 lives and infected over 1.25 lakh people in the country so far.

Jameel has expertise in the fields of molecular biology, infectious diseases, and biotechnology. He is the CEO of Wellcome Trust/Department of Biotechnology's India Alliance and is best known for extensive research in Hepatitis E virus and HIV.

He said COVID-19 will eventually be controlled through herd immunity, which is acquired in two ways – when a sufficient fraction of the population gets infected and recovers, and with vaccination.

"It is estimated that for SARS-CoV-2 at least 60 per cent of the population would have to be infected and recovered, or vaccinated. This will happen over the course of the next few years," Jameel said.

Herd immunity is reached when the majority of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, either because they have become infected and recovered, or through vaccination. When that happens, the disease is less likely to spread to people who aren't immune, because there just aren't enough infectious carriers.

"India has 1.38 billion people, a population density of about 400/sq km and a healthcare system ranked at 143 in the world. If we allow 60 per cent people to get infected quickly in the hopes of herd immunity, that would mean 830 million infections," Jameel said.

"If 15 per cent need hospitalization that means about 125 million isolation beds (we have 0.3 million). If five per cent need oxygen and ventilatory support, this amounts to about 42 million oxygen support and ICU beds; we have 0.1 million oxygen support beds and 34,000 ICU beds. This would overwhelm the healthcare system causing mayhem," he said.

Jameel said if the population level mortality is 0.5 per cent that would mean 40 lakh deaths. "Are we prepared to pay this price for herd immunity in the short term? Clearly not," he said.

He said it is unlikely that a vaccine would be available by the end of the year.

"Even then, we don't know yet how long it would give protection – weeks, months, one year, a few years? I don't think we will return to pre-coronavirus days for at least the next 3-5 years. This is also a chance to evaluate if we want to return to those unsustainable, environment-damaging ways. COVID-19 is a timely warning to reform our way of living," he said.

Jameel said it is hard to predict but plausible that COVID-19 would return in second or third wave.

"Later waves come when we don't understand the disease and become lax. A comparison to Spanish Flu is not entirely valid because in 1918 no one knew what caused it. No one had seen a virus till the mid-1930s as the electron microscope needed to view those was invented in 1931," he said.

"Today we know a lot more about the pathogen, its genetic makeup, how it transmits and how to prevent it. We need to be sensible and follow expert advice," he said.

If there is any scientific evidence linking deforestation, rapid urbanisation, climate change with pandemics like COVID-19, he said zoonotic viruses -- those that jump from animals to humans -- happen so when wild animal–human contacts increase.

"Deforestation destroys animal habitats bringing them closer to humans. When you cut forests, bats come to roost on trees closer to human habitations. Their viruses in secretions/stool get transmitted to domestic animals and on to humans. This happened clearly with Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia in 1997-98 from fruit bats to pigs to humans," he said.

"COVID-19 possibly arose in wet animal markets due to dietary habits that bring all kinds of live and dead wild animals in close contact with humans," Jameel added.

New Delhi, May 23: On the occasion of Jumat-ul-Vida, the last Friday of the ongoing holy month of Ramzan, a select group of people offered namaz at Delhi's Jama Masjid ahead of Eid-ul-Fitr, while adhering to social distancing following relaxations in the fourth phase of the COVID-19 lockdown.

"A large number of people wanted to offer prayers today but we told them they should do so from their homes. Only the staff of the mosque and a few members of the family offered prayers here," Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid said.

The coronavirus pandemic has also marred the excitement of Eid for the vegetable and fruit vendors in neighbouring Daryaganj.

The fourth phase of nation-wide lockdown extended till May 31, began from Monday in which markets and shops were allowed to open. However, due to persisting fear of COVID-19, the sale of products is yet to pick pace.

Unlike each year, the market lacks the sheen this Eid with no bustle and people cautious about venturing out.

Salim, who has been selling cheese and curd in the market for the last 35 years, told ANI, "I have never seen such an Eid. There is an atmosphere of fear in the minds of people."

Another fruit seller Haseen Malik said that "During the month of Ramadan, most people relish fruits such as musk melon, sweet lemon and watermelon so there is some demand for it. But there is no excitement for Eid this year. The sale has been at an all-time low because of the lockdown."

In the wake of the festival and to ensure social distancing, Delhi Police has made elaborate security arrangements. 

New Delhi, May 23: Carrying a sack full of belongings and a backpack on shoulders daily wager Mohammed Sunny and his friend Mohammed Danish are determined to reach home for Eid in Bihar's Araria district, facing all odds stacked up against them.

Shahjehanpur native Adesh Singh with his wife and three little children, who left their residence in south Delhi three days ago, are still scrambling to reach home, haggling with taxi drivers, to take them to their home town charging a reasonable fare.

This was among the many scenes of migrants' life on Friday at Delhi-Uttar Pradesh border touching Ghazipur in east Delhi who are struggling to make their way to their native places amid a COVID-19-induced lockdown across the country.

"We left home three days ago near Chhatarpur, we have walked and rested by roadsides, people gave us food on the way, so we survived. Now, we just want to reach home, we can't survive in Delhi," Manju Singh, wife of Adesh Singh told PTI as she waited at the UP Gate to get a taxi to cross the border on way to her home.

Their three children Alok (12), Ankesh (8) and Rupali (9), all wearing simple masks, were seen squatting on the roadside beside their luggage as their wearied parents, using cloths to cover their nose and mouth, bargained with taxi drivers to take them home, without charging much above the regular fare, saying they "did not have much cash left".

Police personnel could be seen asking many migrants who were marching on foot towards the inter-state border, to turn back.

Many did, but not Sunny and Danish, who feel if "Allah wants us to reach home, we surely will".

Both of them worked at a chemical plant in Delhi, and said, they have been "kicked out" after the lockdown was imposed, making their survival difficult in the national capital.

"We don't have money to pay rent now, or buy food, we have to go home now, what option do we have," Sunny said.

Danish alleged that the poor have been "abandoned" by the government and left in the lurch.

"The government has money to bring home Indians stranded abroad, but can't take home the Indians who have been toiling hard all these years. Is it fair to us," he asked.

"But, Inshallah, we will reach home if the Almighty wants us to, and will be joining our family for Eid, though it will hardly be a celebration this time. But, we want the comfort of being with our family at least," Sunny said.

Eid which marks the end of the holy Ramzan month, will be celebrated either on Sunday or Monday, depending on sighting of the moon.

Lakhs of migrant labourers stranded away from home in Delhi and other big cities have been attempting to reach home in the last two months, a large number of them walking on foot after they found no mode of conveyance.

The coronavirus death toll in Delhi has mounted to 208, while 660 fresh cases of COVID-19 infection reported on Friday, the highest single-day spike here, took the total in the city to 12,319.

Roshan Shrivastav (19), his nephew Shivam Shrivastav (19) and friend Prince Gupta (21), all hailing from Siwan in Bihar, were seen standing on a pavement after being told by the police to turn back from the barricade posted bear the Delhi-UP border.

"We live together in Baljeet Nagar in West Delhi, in a single room. I had come from Bihar after Holi, seeking a job, but then I got stuck in lockdown here without a job. Whatever money I had brought, and Rs 10,000 our parents had sent online, all has got exhausted in these three months," Roshan lamented.

"Our landlord has been very kind, and didn't even ask for any rent after the lockdown, but how long can we survive on charity. And, I don't like being dependent on someone, so we want to go home," he said.

Roshan said, he and Shivam, both also write and sing songs in Hindi and their native tongue Bhojpuri.

"We have written a few lines on lockdown crisis too -- 'Hum mazdooran ke ghar bhejwa da sarkar, nahin to ketna log hiyan par ho jai bimar' (please send us home or else many would fall sick here)," Shivam said, as he stood in scorching heat of May, carrying his leftover cash in pocket and hope in heart.