Unlock 2.0 Guidelines: Schools, colleges, metro to remain shut; curfew from 10 pm to 5 am

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Shirdi, Jan 19: Shirdi in Maharashtra will remain closed for an indefinite period from today in the wake of state Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray's decision to develop Pathri town in Parbhani district as Sai Baba's birthplace.

However, Deepak Madukar Muglikar, Chief Executive Officer of Shri Saibaba Sansthan Trust, has said that Sai Baba Temple in Shirdi will remain open today and will not be impacted by the closure of the city.

"There are some reports in media that Sai Temple in Shirdi will remain closed on January 19. I want to clarify that it is just a rumor. Temple will remain open on January 19," Mr Muglikar said.

A call has been given for indefinite closure of Shirdi after Mr Thackeray's reported comment terming Pathri in Parbhani as Sai Baba's birthplace.

"Devotees will not face any difficulty if they come to Shirdi," said B Wakchaure, member of Saibaba Sansthan Trust.

Uddhav Thackeray has recently announced that Pathri will be developed as the birthplace of Sai Baba for religious tourism and also took a review meeting of the development plans in the Parbhani district.

One of the most popular religious destinations in the country, Saibaba Temple in Shirdi witnesses lakh of devotees visiting the holy site every year.

New Delhi, Jun 29: Fuel prices rose on Monday again after a days pause with oil marketing companies increasing the pump price of petrol by 5 paisa and diesel by 13 paisa per litre in Delhi.

In the national capital, petrol price on Monday stood at Rs 80.43 per litre while that of diesel at Rs 80.53 a litre.

With this increase, fuel prices have moved up on 22 of the last 23 days (with no rise on Sunday). Petrol prices, however, were unchanged for an additional day in between after the daily revision based on dynamic pricing was reinstated by OMCs.

Since the daily price revision resumed on June 7, petrol price has increased Rs 9.17 and diesel rose by Rs 11.14 in the national capital. In the other cities the magnitude of increase was similar.

During the past 23 days, the quantum of price hike gradually declined from around 60 paise raise for a few days, immediately post the resumption of daily price revision, to less than 20 paise during the past few days and now even less than 10 paisa per litre.

In a historic development, the price of diesel surged above that of petrol in the national capital during this period. It continues to remain higher even though on Saturday the quantum of petrol price hike was higher than that of diesel.

Officials in oil marketing companies said that it is hard to predict which of the two fuels will be priced higher in the Capital as the gap between the two is almost negligible. But petrol prices have shown more volatility in international markets that may take it ahead once again in coming days.

Apart from Delhi, the retail prices of petrol and diesel have followed the traditional path in other metros with petrol being priced at a premium of between Rs 5 and 8 per litre. The difference between the auto fuel prices in Delhi and other metros is because of the taxation structure.

While both petrol and diesel are at similar levels of taxes (state and centre) in Delhi, it is higher for petrol in many other Indian cities.

Globally diesel is priced a tad higher than petrol. In India too, the base price of diesel is slightly higher than petrol but taxation at central and state levels changed the complexion of retail prices.

If the price of petroleum products and crude hold their positions in global markets, then petrol and diesel prices rise may stop for a longer period and we may even see marginal fall in prices.

Fuel prices have been increasing since June 7 when oil companies began the daily price revision mechanism after a hiatus of 82 days during the lockdown.