‘Voter ID was more powerful than the IED of terrorists’: PM Modi casts vote in Ahmedabad

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Bhopal, Jul 25: Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said on Saturday he has tested positive for the coronavirus disease (Covid-19).

Chouhan made the announcement in a series of tweets.

“My dear countrymen, I had symptoms of COVID-19 and after the test, my report has come back positive. I appeal to all my colleagues that whoever came in contact with me, must get their corona test done. And my close contacts should quarantine themselves,” Chouhan said in a tweet in Hindi.

“If COVID19 is treated on time, a person is completely cured. I have been reviewing the status of corona infection every evening since March 25. I will try to review corona situation through video conferencing as much as possible now,” he added.

The chief minister said the review meeting will now be held by home minister Narottam Mishra, urban development and administration minister Bhuppendra Singh, health education minister Vishvas Sarang and health minister Dr Prabhuram Choudhary in his absence.

“I will also continue to do everything possible to help control COVID19 in the state during treatment,” he said.

One of Chouhan’s ministerial colleagues tested positive for Covid-19 late on July 22.

The chief minister along with the minister, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s state unit president VD Sharma and state unit general secretary (organisation) Suhas Bhagat had visited Lucknow in a government plane on July 21 to attend the funeral of MP governor Lalji Tandon who died away in the Uttar Pradesh capital, his hometown. during hospitalisation.

The minister is admitted to a private medical college’s teaching hospital in Bhopal.