Kerala floods: 33,000 people rescued; 6.33 lakh people in relief camps

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

New Delhi, Jan 28: Stepping up attack on Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Monday dared the AAP chief to visit the anti-CAA protest site at Shaheen Bagh so that the people of Delhi can decide whom to vote for in the assembly election.

Addressing a rally in Rithala in northwest Delhi, Shah said Kejriwal and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi were against the construction of Ram temple, the scrapping of provisions of Article 370 and not bothered about the country's image and soldiers.

The opposition fears that they will upset their vote bank, he said and asked, "Are you their vote bank? Where is their vote bank?" To this, the crowd replied, "Shaheen Bagh".

The BJP leader claimed that the Delhi Police has booked Sharjeel Imam, a JNU student, on the charge of sedition for his comment of "trying to cut chicken's neck" and breaking the North East from the rest of the country.

"I want to ask Kejriwal whether he is in favour of apprehending Sharjeel Imam or not? Whether you are with the people of Shaheen Bagh or not, please tell the people of Delhi," Shah said.

Imam was one of the initial organisers of the Shaheen Bagh protest.

Hitting back at the BJP, Kejriwal alleged that the saffron party does not want to open the Shaheen Bagh stretch of the Kalindi Kunj road as it is doing "dirty politics" over it.

He said law and order in the national capital lies entirely with the Centre and "if they are saying that they need permission from me, I am giving them permission, open the road in one hour".

"I can give it to you in writing, the BJP does not want to open the route in Shaheen Bagh. The Shaheen Bagh route will remain closed till February 8 (election day) and it will open February 9," Kejriwal told reporters.

Calling Kejriwal a member of the 'tukde tukde' gang, a term used by the BJP to attack groups it accuses of working to promote violent leftists and separatism, Shah sought to return fire and said the protesters of Shaheen Bagh will not listen to his party.

"They will not listen to us. You people (AAP leaders) say that you are with Shaheen Bagh, if you have the guts then go and sit with them and let Delhi decide," Shah said.

At another election rally in Janakpuri, Shah accused Gandhi and Kejriwal of doing politics of "vote bank" on national issues and "supporting" the protest at Shaheen Bagh while instigating riots and vandalism.

"The Modi government will not spare anti-national elements," he warned.

Upon mentioning the recent Supreme Court judgment on Ayodhya, Shah was greeted with cheers and chants of 'Jai Shri Ram'.

The home minister further said that this was the first Republic Day in Jammu and Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370 and the tricolour was unfurled there with enthusiasm and without any bloodshed.

The former BJP president also attacked the Kejriwal government for not fulfilling promises like regularising temporary employees, providing free wifi, opening new schools and colleges, constructing roads and cleaning the Yamuna.

"Kejriwal government is in power since five years but till today there is no clean drinking water in the city. There are no good schools or hospitals as claimed by him. When I visited a Delhi government school, I saw that it was operating from a building that was illegally built and falls in the list of those that to be erased," Shah said.

He claimed that Kejriwal came to power with the help of Anna Hazare's anti-corruption movement but "completely changed" later on.

"He had said that he would not take any government accommodation or vehicles and other facilities but after becoming chief minister he availed all these facilities," Shah said.

He also slammed the Delhi government for not sanctioning the prosecution of former JNU students' union leader Kanhaiya Kumar in a sedition case.

Shah said if the national capital comes under the leadership of Modi, it will become the best city in the world.

The BJP has a vision for development of Delhi and cleaning the Yamuna river will be on top of our agenda, he said.

"Yamuna river is still dirty as against his (Kejriwal) claims of cleaning the river... Modi and Yogi (Adityanath) have cleaned Ganga river as promised. We will make Yamuna Riverfront like Sabarmati riverfront in Ahmedabad," Shah said.

However, a sizeable majority of those present at the public meeting was not convinced by the claims and promises made by Shah.

Bablu Yadav, a migrant and resident of Janakpuri said, "Shah and Modi can only talk but Kejriwal knows how to perform. They keep raking up issues like Ayodhya, Kashmir, Muslims and Pakistan... what are they waiting for if they want to attack Pakistan? They are in power, so why don't they destroy it instead of telling us how wrong Pakistan is?"

Another local Deepak Shrivastava who attended the Janakpuri meeting said, "All we hear from Modi and Shah are pep talks. I am an engineer from BHU and searching for a job. This government has failed the country's youth."

"Now, they have a problem with protests in universities but it is the same youth who brought them to power in 2014. The same youth will ensure their defeat," he added.

The public meeting in Janakpuri witnessed two incidents of pick-pocketing as the thieves managed to steal Rs 37,500 in cash and a mobile phone, police said.

Howrah, Jan 8: Following the 'Bharat Bandh' called by trade unions, protesters blocked railway tracks in Howrah and Kanchrapara in North 24 Parganas on Wednesday.

They raised anti-government slogans and criticised the Center for its policies. They were holding placards, posters and banners against the government.

Commuters faced difficulties as bus services were also affected. CPI (M) protesters also stopped the operation of state transport buses. In Odisha, the public agitation started around 6 am at Talcher, Bhubaneswar, Brahmapur, Bhadrak and Kendujhargarh.

Due to the protests, the following trains are detained enroute at different stations --Bhadrak-Brahmapur passenger at Bhadrak, Kendujhargarh-Bhubaneswar passenger at Kendujhargarh, Bhubaneswar-Balangir InterCity at Bhubaneswar, Howrah-Yesvantpur Express at Brahmapur, Ichhapur-Cuttack MEMU at

Brahmapur and Puri-Rourkela passenger at Bhubaneswar.

The ten central trade unions including Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU), Indian National Trade Union Congress (INTUC), among others have given the call for strike with a 12-point charter of demand. Trade union Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh (BMS) is not taking part in the strike.